There has not been an 8 AM sales announcement for corn since Wednesday, normally that would not be too concerning but with trade fearful of an export slowdown it could cause pressure soon

March has returned to the 440 fair value level, now the question is if exports can remain strong to suggest moving that fair value level slightly higher due to USDA raising exports

Overnight continues the pattern of pessimistic export expectations, after seeing last week’s exports at a moderate level we will see if this light selling continues after 8:30

Overall demand remains very strong for corn, the USDA has figures factored in that suggests it will slow eventually but for now both exports and ethanol are above USDA expectations

8 AM sales continue, ethanol expected strong again today, less spill over weight from beans

BB lower again after a 1 day bounce (like we saw last week), packer profits at a dismal sub $0 level

Yesterday there were no gov’t reports so we didn’t see any 8 AM sales but overnight traders seem to still be highly concerned that the Trump victory will mean an instant slowdown of Chinese buying

Funds buy 40K, now long 22K or 5% of record, too early to tell if they plan to build a long position

If carryout is lowered today it will adjust our fair value levels slightly but both corn/beans are still expected to be in a range of trade possibly up to the January crop report as the USDA typically makes no changes on the December report. Today’s numbers will determine what our new trading range will be.

Beans expecting a carryout decline of 18 mil bu Friday which may mean additional pre buying could be seen, fair value may be raised from 1015 to 1025 (Jan)

Beans have been the target of election fear selling for days so there is no surprise to see beans down as much as they are in overnight, especially knowing it is overnight traders doing the selling

Harvest at 91%, early estimates call lower yield Friday, trade to stay cautious during elections

Funds bought 54K, short term supportive but over the last 5 weeks funds have been choppy in corn

Both the ethanol and export numbers were strong enough this week to provide at least light support

Analysts are expecting strong exports today but like corn, traders appear to be looking for the lower end of that estimate, corn/beans are priced at a level that anticipates only moderate exports today

There are currently rumors of China buying 10 cargoes of beans (may have supplied overnight support) but we will need to wait to see if any of this is confirmed at 8 AM

It is likely there will be some who missed buying the last pullback and will place their orders slightly higher this time around to not miss out, that’s why better support is expected near 410 rather than 400

Funds bought 5K, COF supportive but not as bullish as expected, BB uncertain

While the cash news is continued strong this week, a note of caution might be seen now that BB has eased back 3 days in a row, let’s continue to watch BB closely

Exports are expected very large this morning, the high end 4150K would be the 5th highest weekly corn sale in history if this morning’s number comes in that strong

Overnight may be expecting a day off from 8 AM sales, stock analyst calls grains undervalued

Harvest over 80% is the level traders consider it to be “done” unless there is a major weather issue in the forecast which the 10 day outlook does not suggest

Funds have now been buyers of cattle for 4 weeks in a row and are holding the largest long position they have had in almost exactly a year

Trade expecting strong exports of 1200K – 2250K, last week was 1222K, fund selling?

The recent crush report is sign of a demand increase now that November has been near or under 1000 but more is needed to halt the recent active selling and even more needed for a bounce