Corn – Slow grind higher towards fair value continues, funds relatively quiet, no spill over pressure
↑ Many may not think this but corn has been slowly grinding higher since August 27th
↔Funds were sellers of 6K, which is likely a smaller number than trade had expected to see
↑ Without beans or wheat offering spill over pressure the overall path of corn continues to be a very
slow grind higher, on August 27th March corn started trading the day at 405
↔Exports have slowed the last 2 weeks, not an issue yet but they will need to improve again to meet
USDA’s new lofty export expectation
Beans – ARG still on the drier side now including southern BRA, funds sellers of 18K
↑ Morning 10 day maps still have ARG on the drier side and now southern BRA is also expected drier
↔These maps are still not concerning for actual production losses but with March priced 54 cents
under fair value there are many traders already pre pricing in a very strong or record crop
↓ Funds were sellers of 18K, likely larger than trade expected, now short 76K or 41% of record
↔Exports are still solid, trade has feared a slowdown for 5 weeks now and while weekly numbers are a
bit slower, they are not extreme enough to expect any changes from the USDA
Wheat – Technical bounce helped by overseas trade, funds sellers of 21K, US dollar still very strong
↑ Last night looks to be more of a technical bounce than anything else which was likely helped by
seeing overseas make the same move last night
↓ Funds were sellers of 21K, now short 87K or 54% of record
↓ The US dollar is off peak highs from last week but not by much and is moving back up towards those
peak highs in overnight trade, currently at 108.10 with the recent spike high being 108.54
Cattle – COF neutral, funds buyers of 8K, likely expecting last week’s average trade to be steady
↔Friday’s PM BB was choice -4.84 select +1.80 packer BE at 191.06, packer cushion -$1.33
↔Erratic BB trade continues, spikes higher then lower, overall still a slow grind higher though
↔Friday’s COF report was mostly neutral, on feed was 99.7% which was dead on expectations,
Placements were 96.3% (expected 94.9%) and Marketings were 98.5% (expected 98.2%)
↑ Friday’s COT report showed funds buying 8K cattle, that now makes 12 buying weeks from funds over
the last 13, long 134K or 87% of record
↔Last week’s average cash trade expected to be close to the previous week’s which was 192.39