Corn – Ethanol moderate, exports expected moderate/poor, some end of week selling possible
↔ Ethanol slowed slightly, it has gone from a strong weekly number to now a moderate one
↓ Traders are likely expecting a poor export report this morning, likely less than 700K
↓ Beans offered solid spill over resistance last night and without fund trade in the overnight market to step in as buyers it allowed beans to have a larger downward influence
↔ Some selling might be expected today/tomorrow ahead of Trump taking office on Monday, we have seen Trump related fear trade for 2 months so it would be no surprise to see it now
Beans – Exports expected poor, more end of week fear selling expecting in beans
↓ Exports are likely to be expected poor of 500K or less due to the slowdown seen the last 2 weeks
↓ Pre Trump tariff selling would be expected more in beans than just about any other market so there would be no surprise to see a setback going into the end of the week
↑ Like corn, beans still have a low carryout number that will not be ignored long term so while short term panic selling is expected a low carryout should eventually resume a grind higher for corn/beans
↔ First chart support is at 1020 ½ and then 1015 ¾ so there is room for a panic drift lower yet
Wheat – Exports expected very poor which would make 3 very poor weeks in a row
↓ Trade is likely expecting exports 200K or less after seeing 2 very poor weeks in a row
↔ If corn/beans see panic selling to end the week, wheat will not have much reason to hold support
↑ If support is found it will likely be from the cold event starting day 2 and going through day 5
Cattle – NE trades at 206 but not many trades reported, BB and the feeder index still neutral lately
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +1.16 select -0.67 packer BE at 207.07, packer cushion $6.16
↑ Cash trades were strong again at 206 in NE which is $3 over last week’s average cash trade
↔ There were very limited reports of cash trades, tough to know for sure but could possibly be due to buying slowing down as some packers have recently talked of doing
↔ The new years week of slaughter was 100K less than the previous new years week but given it was a holiday week it is tough to truly call that a slowdown, we will see if today’s report shows a slowdown
↔ Choice + Select BB is at 652, it could be seeing some resistance near record highs of 654