Corn – Ethanol expected strong again today, open interest spiking higher suggesting fund buying
↑ Ethanol will be expected strong again on today’s report, likely close to last week’s 1102K
↑ Open interest was +28K yesterday and has seen a +153K jump in the last 3 sessions
↔ That large of an open interest move higher almost certainly suggests fund buying is continuing, last week they were long 253K (59% record) so they do have more room to buy
↔ if panic selling is seen again ahead of Trump taking office Monday then it would be expected to be larger in beans than corn, Mexico posted some optimistic headlines about tariffs yesterday
Beans – Crush expected strong today, less sign of fund buying, will panic selling step in soon?
↑ Crush is out today at 11 AM and it is expected to be a record 205.5 mil bu
↔ Unlike corn, open interest has been up recently but not nearly on the same scale, this follows the recent fund pattern where they have been buying beans but much more slowly than corn
↔ The big question is if we will see another round of fear selling like we have seen often the last 3 months, some fear selling is possible before Trump takes office and applies new tariffs Monday
↔ A few factors that may limit fear selling: It hasn’t worked as a long term trade the last 2 months, funds are lightly buying, exports are ahead of pace and can afford a cooling off and still meet USDA exp
Wheat – Cold still in the forecast days 3 – 5 with coldest temps the same as yesterday’s map
↑ There is still a cold threat days 3 – 5 with the morning map looking similar to yesterday’s
↓ The fact that wheat did not see a bullish report Friday is likely to continue applying regular light pressure to this market, exports will likely be expected poor tomorrow as well, likely under 300K
↔ The US dollar backed off highs for 2 days, much more is needed before expecting wheat support
Cattle – Mixed BB/index news yesterday, first cash bid in IA at 205, resistance still seen in the 199’s
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -0.37 select +1.14 packer BE at 206.91, packer cushion $6.00
↔ BB and the feeder index both provided mixed news yesterday, still likely that futures will watch the index more than any other single factor this week unless cash trades are seen +$3 or more
↑ A single cash bid was seen in IA yesterday at 205, that is $2 over last week’s trade for that area
↓ The high in April cattle the last 3 days has been: 199.70, 199.50, 199.25, this shows that resistance is just as aggressive near $200 as it was expected to be
↔ Resistance in April should be expected to cause resistance in all contracts, both fats and feeders