Corn – Exports expected slightly slow near 1100K, spill over influence is lower last night
↓ Once again trade is expecting at least slightly slow exports of around 1100K
↓ SA map updates spilled some slightly lower influence over to corn in overnight trade
↑ The Jan crop report is a week from today and even if carryout is left unchanged the 1.738 would still
be slightly supportive, there is even a chance USDA may slightly raise demand again next week
↔The last 3 crop reports have suggested corn is underpriced, a reason trade may trust more in next
week’s report is because it is the Jan crop report and most of these numbers will not be changed again
Beans – Exports expected strong near 900K, small increase to ARG rains on the morning 10 day map
↑ Exports are expected around 900K which would be considered strong for this week
↔Exports of 900K looks like a significant slowdown but a fast slowdown is expected this time of year,
in fact the 5 year average for exports on this week is closer to 400K
↓ Morning 10 day maps show a very small increase to ARG rains, SA is getting close to the key weather
timeframe now so we should expect trade to react even more to map changes
↔Like corn, if the Jan crop report leaves carryout unchanged at 0.470 it would still be seen as
supportive as that carryout is what suggest the 1035 fair value, demand is slightly ahead of USDA pace
Wheat – Exports expected moderate near 375K, US dollar makes new 25 month high yesterday
↑ Exports are expected moderate at 375K, last week topped expectations by a fair amount
↓ The US dollar is easing slightly today but in the larger picture it is still moving higher making a new 25
month high yesterday, support comes from the US talking 2 rate cuts in 2025 while the EU talks 4 cuts
Cattle – Cash trades mostly $2 higher, 198 NE and 195 KS, feeders flip back to being highly optimistic
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -0.74 select -0.29 packer BE at 196.12, packer cushion $3.44
↑ Cash cattle traded $2 higher in both NE as well as KS/TX, there is a chance we may see a limited
number of cattle trade $3 higher today, we will watch to see if that is the case
↑ Feeder futures have reversed their trade in a big way, the index has recovered near recent highs but
feeder futures are another $4.43 above that level, feeder futures made a new all-time high yesterday
↔Some of this feeder support may be coming from the fact that we are now beyond Jan 1st with no
official dates being discussed on re opening the Mexico border
↔Next week’s grain report is expected to continue looking positive for corn price, not positive feeders