Corn – Exports not as poor as feared, beans ease up on spillover pressure last night
↑ Exports were only moderate yesterday at 1177K but that is still a level that is supportive at this price
↑ Corn attempted to shrug off the bean setback until beans fell more than 20 cents which then corn
had to follow, if beans continue to ease spillover pressure on corn, corn can bounce on its own news
↔Last Friday’s COT report showed funds buyers of 78K, let’s see what today’s report shows
↔While fear trade is likely to be seen again let’s never forget that 470 is fair value which means once
fear eases there is reason for a recovery unless we see true changes to the fundamentals
Beans – ARG maps turned significantly drier this morning, exports again solid at 1424K
↑ Morning maps reduced rains for ARG significantly on the 10 day outlook, while not completely dry
they do show the least rain in a 10 day forecast since early October
↔Southern BRA also turned drier but not as extreme as ARG which makes ARG the focus right now
↑ Once again trade fear sold into the weekly exports and once again they were nowhere near as poor
as feared, 1424K is not an amazing number but it looks bullish from current price levels
↔The bill to avoid a gov’t shutdown has still not been passed so the fate of the bio diesel credits is still
unknown for now, like most gov’t shutdowns if this is going to be solved it will likely be last minute
Wheat – Exports 458K which were slightly disappointing, US dollar making new highs recently
↓ Exports at 458K sounds solid but were actually slightly disappointing as that particular week is known
for having even better sales than the number seen yesterday
↓ The US dollar made new highs Wednesday, Thursday and last night, when the US dollar is making
new significant highs like seen this week, it has a larger effect on wheat trade
Cattle – BB trading erratically lately, cash trades mostly steady with last week, more cautious trade
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +5.85 select -1.44 packer BE at 192.02, packer cushion -$0.37
↔BB is trading erratically lately with active moves higher or lower but over the last 3 weeks it is
trending higher as a whole
↔Most cash trades seen so far have been steady with last week
↓ Yesterday showed cautious trade and solid signs it may have been fund selling as well, yesterday saw
both the volume spikes that we look for to determine fund trade and the OI report was -4K
↔Feeders remain highly sensitive to changes in the index, yesterday the index was -0.77 at 262.23