Corn – Exports expected moderate to slightly slow around 1300K, signs of fund buying yesterday
↓ Exports are expected moderate to slightly poor at 1300K, last week was 1177K
↔Exports have slowed the last 2 weeks, not uncommon for this time of year but they have slowed
enough that another week or 2 of this pattern may have trade doubting exports will reach USDA target
↔Did not see an ethanol report yesterday, maybe we will see one today?
↑ March corn made new 6 month highs yesterday and continues a 4 month long slow grind higher
Beans – Exports expected moderate to slightly strong around 1500K, slightly improved ARG forecast
↓ Morning ARG maps increased rain just slightly, rains still hold off to day 6 but what might cause light
pressure is seeing the maps are not flip flopping, they are sticking with a moderate rain event days 6 – 9
↑↓ Analysts expect exports slightly strong around 1500K, once again likely traders are thinking 1000K
↓ March (lead contract) posted a high last night 998 ¼, we are likely to see resistance near 1000 again
↑ Like corn there were strong signs of fund buying yesterday that also like corn was backed up by an
open interest move heavily suggesting fund buying, funds are short 76K beans or 41% record
Wheat – Exports expected moderate around 425K, no signs of fund buying in this market yesterday
↔Exports are expected moderate around 425K, recent weeks have been slightly disappointing
↔Unlike corn/beans there were no clear signs of fund buying in wheat yesterday, it looked more like
wheat was following the other 2 markets but did not have the same volume
↔There are still no major cold weather threats over HRW areas but we should keep watching maps
Cattle – A fundamental bounce was needed yesterday that looked aided slightly by fund buying
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +4.41 select +2.02 packer BE at 193.41, packer cushion $0.69
↑ BB has recovered enough to put gross packer profits back into the black, net profit is still a loss
↔Tuesday’s trade left futures priced at a level assuming $2 lower cash, yesterday’s bounce now
factors in a cash level of near steady with last week (192.72 KS/TX, 195.11 NE)
↑ Open interest saw a small 1592 increase, suggesting we may have seen small fund buying yesterday
↓ March feeders are back near contract highs of 260.70, any area around 260 is likely to see resistance
↔Yesterday’s feeder index was -2.19, futures moving higher while the index moves lower is a pattern
that is not likely to last long, one or the other will likely turn around soon