Corn – Analysts expecting exports moderate around 1250K, likely that trade is expecting the same
↔After last week’s slowdown in exports to 947K estimates for this week have eased slightly from strong expectations in previous weeks to now more moderate expectations
↓ Corn is almost as oversold as beans at -7.18% to fair value, beans are at -8.14%
↔Today’s export report could have a larger than normal influence, if it is disappointing it would be seen as confirmation of weeks of export slowdown fears
↔Keep in mind how much bad news has already been pre priced in, corn is far from fair value, we could see a streak of 500K weekly export reports and it still would not justify the current price
Beans – Analysts expecting exports moderate around 1450K, likely trade expecting a lower number
↔Analysts are expecting a moderate export number this week but it is highly likely that traders are looking for a sub 1000K number at least, if not lower
↓ The $1/gallon blenders credit for bio diesel did not get extended when the House formed a new bill to avoid a gov’t shutdown, the Senate could still add the $1 credit back in when they address the bill
↓ BRA crop estimates are slowly moving higher, one analyst yesterday raised their number to 175 MMT
↔With beans at -8.14% to fair value (-81 cents) there is a lot of bad news pre priced in, now we will see if that bad news is what we see in the next few weeks
Wheat – Analysts expecting exports solid around 412K, likely trade expecting a much lower number
↓ Analysts are expecting exports solid to strong, wheat moving to new contract lows last night suggests traders are looking for a much worse report
↔Overseas wheat set back slightly last night but the US selling is far out pacing overseas
Cattle – BB lower again, cash trades yesterday mostly 194 – 195 (last week ave for NE 194.74)
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -0.79 select -2.95 packer BE at 190.62, packer cushion -$1.77
↔BB had looked as though it was on a solid recovery, now that might be a bit more in doubt
↔Most NE cash trades after the futures closed yesterday were steady with last week at 194 - 195
↓ Feeders are still clearly watching each day’s update to the feeder index, also could be seeing some easing ahead of any Mexico border opening announcement
↓ Cattle trade has turned cautious for the first time in 2 weeks, some of this could be longs letting go of positions knowing that at some point the border will open again, the question is when