Corn – More spill over support from beans possible, March could reach to 470 fair value by Jan report
↑ ARG 10 day maps are dry which is still mostly a bean story but we could also make the case for light
support directly from looking at their corn crop as well
↑ The December crop report carryout number suggested of fair value of 470, most are likely expecting
carryout to remain unchanged or lowered slightly on the January 10th crop report
↔Ethanol will be out today with most expecting a neutral to slightly strong number, last week 1107K
↔Next light chart resistance is 471 ½ which happens to be close to fair value where more resistance
would be expected anyway, beyond that the chart doesn’t have much resistance until 490
Beans – ARG/southern BRA 10 day maps remain on the dry side, some cooling off from Tuesday?
↑ ARG and southern BRA 10 day maps remain mostly dry which may not offer quite as much support as
we have recently seen but should still be expected to act as general light support
↔Like corn, March beans may reach the 1035 fair value level by the time we get to the January crop
report, last month's carryout of 0.470 is expected also to be unchanged or slightly lower on that report
↔We will see if there is some cooling off from Tuesday’s spike higher of +18 ½
↔The recent bounce in corn/beans was on solid to strong volume, giving more confidence in the move
Wheat – Can still follow corn/beans thanks to last week’s strong 625K exports
↑ Exports of 625K last week can help wheat to follow corn/beans higher on bounces
↔Trade will likely expect exports to cool off slightly tomorrow to a more moderate 450K number
↑ Overseas wheat has not been much influence lately but is also recovering in the last couple weeks
Cattle – Live futures factoring cash +$1 this week (193.50 KS/TX, 197.50 NE), crucial $200 not far away
↔Tuesday’s PM BB was choice -1.15 select -0.24 packer BE at 196.45, packer cushion $3.47
↑ The feeder index bounce on Tuesday of +7.08 was enough to set aside concerns that cash feeders
were setting back, after a week where the index was -$9.03, Tuesday’s bounce put $7.08 back on
↔Live cattle futures are now pricing in cash at +$1 this week getting very close to the key $200 level
↓ Whether it is cash or any futures contract, the $200 level is likely to continue acting as major
resistance, that level may eventually be taken out but it is unlikely it will happen easily
↔Funds have been buyers of cattle 12 of the last 14 weeks but last week they were light sellers, as of
that report they were 83% of record longs which still gives them room to buy but not aggressively