Corn – Signs fund buying continues but is slowing, the path to 520 may slow drastically without them
↑ Open interest was +15K which isn’t small but it is a slow down from the previous 7 trading days, this is a sign that fund buying has not stopped but has been slowing the last 2 days
↔ Without fund buying corn can still grind towards 520 fair value but it may slow drastically
↓ Yesterday’s high was 492 ¼ the first chart resistance is expected near the round number of 500
↔ Another technical consideration is that the 38% retracement for the latest move higher is 462 ¼, that represents a “small” pullback that can happen while not threatening the overall move higher
Beans – No new tariff headlines, helpful rains for southern ARG now only 4 days out
↔ No new tariff headlines seen last night but that should be the 1st thing we check every morning
↔ China saying overnight it hopes to “properly manage differences” with the US
↓ Helpful rains for southern ARG are now just 4 days away, totals are expected to be moderate but any rainfall in that area will certainly be welcome right now
↔ The 38% “small” retracement setback level for the latest bean move higher is 1025
↔ Open interest was -4K which implies that in beans, funds may have stopped buying for now
Wheat – One more wave of cold air then temperatures moderate, March CHI almost hit fair value
↔ There is one more wave of cold air today/tomorrow then temperatures moderate and move to slightly above average for most of the 15 day outlook
↔ March CHI almost reached 570 fair value yesterday posting a high of 566 ¾, wheat does not have nearly as supportive fundamentals as corn/beans
Cattle – NE cash bids 206 late yesterday, Feb takes out 200 but lead contract April has not yet
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -0.03 select -1.56 packer BE at 206.38, packer cushion $5.28
↔ Cash bids moved $1 higher late yesterday, after the bounce futures are now pricing in cash +1.50
↔ Still tough to determine what caused the surge in feeder cattle yesterday that spilled over to fat cattle, we will see if today’s feeder index shows a surge higher in cash feeder prices yesterday
↓ Feb moved over $200 yesterday but the lead contract of April did not yet, posting a high of 199.875
↔ If $200 is taken out by April it does not suggest we should expect another wave of buying but it does take out a key resistance area on the chart allowing for an easier grind higher if news remains bullish