Corn – Beans offering spill over support, March to new 6 month highs, approaching 470 fair value
↑ Beans are offering spill over support overnight, the opposite of what we’ve seen the last 5 weeks
↑ Each time March moves higher from here it is a new 6 month high, next chart resistance 471 ½
↔That chart resistance is also very close to 470 fair value where we might expect corn support to slow
↔There were signs that we may have seen fund buying a few days last week, we will see if that is
confirmed on today’s COT report and keep watching for signs during the trading day as well
Beans – ARG maps show only light rains, some of that dryness extends to southern BRA
↑ Not seeing an improvement in ARG 10 day weather maps, they still show only light rains after that
was the forecast most of last week as well, this does extend into southern BRA as well
↑ Keep in mind that recent price has suggested a record or near record crop for both BRA and ARG so
any amount of non-ideal maps should add at least light support
↔There were signs of some fund short covering last week, will see how much is on today’s COT report
↓ The 1000 level is still likely to act as resistance, if taken out follow up resistance is expected at 1019 ¾
Wheat – Last week’s exports may help wheat to follow corn/beans, 1
st cold threat days 9 - 10
↑ Last week's strong exports at 625K could help wheat to follow corn/beans higher
↔Days 9 – 10 of the forecast offer the first active cold threat to HRW areas, still far enough out to only
have low confidence but something trade will watch as there have been no weather threats this winter
↔Unlike corn/beans there were no signs of fund buying in wheat but we will see on the COT report
Cattle – Last week ended with an uptick in cash trades, likely to continue support, BB higher again
↔Friday’s PM BB was choice +1.99 select +2.36 packer BE at 194.79, packer cushion $2.07
↑ Last week traded mostly steady in NE at 195 but late Friday there were a couple trades posted at 196
and 197, those trades will help the weekly average but were not large size
↑ Like corn/beans we will watch today’s COT report to see if funds were buyers again, as of last week
they were already at 87% of record longs so today’s report could show a number in the low 90’s
↑ There is a forecast for the first cattle area snow event days 6 – 7, it doesn’t hit cattle areas directly,
most of the active snow will be in the northern ½ of NE but this is the first snowstorm of the year
↓ NE cash trades are reaching close to 200 and that level is still expected to be major resistance, not
only is 200 resistance in cash but also for any futures contract