Corn – Reluctant to move lower possibly from continued fund buying, tariffs not as threatening corn
↑ Even on yesterday's move lower solid support was still being seen, this support may have come from continued fund buying as open interest was up 9K yesterday
↑ Support the last 3 days has been around 473 but larger scale support not seen until 460 ¼
↓ Some Friday profit taking is expected both from being a Friday ahead of a 3 day weekend as well as selling ahead of Trump tariffs likely to be placed on Monday
↔ Tariffs are expected to have a smaller impact on corn with at least a chance of nearly no impact to the final carryout number, the USDA has already factored in an export slowdown
Beans – Possible bargain buying last night, ARG still sees a pickup in rains days 7+, fear selling likely
↑ Longer term traders may have been “bargain buyers” last night, buying any setback is a trade that can work well if beans are to eventually reach fair value of 1100
↑↓ ARG still warm dry short term but then finds better rains on days 7 and further out, the same forecast applies to southern BRA
↓ Fear selling ahead of the new tariffs this weekend is still expected today
↔ March may find general support around the 100 day MA at 1020 ½ then follow up support around the old high of 1015 ¾, this shows that after yesterday’s setback chart support is not that far away
Wheat – Exports improved to a solid 513K, more is still needed, cold re intensified on morning maps
↔ Exports bounced back to a slightly strong 513K, more is needed before larger support is expected
↑ Cold re intensified for ND/SD on the morning maps, lowest temps back to -26 compared to average
↔ Lately wheat has enough news for better support but not enough to expect a new bounce
Cattle – NE trades ease to 204.50, BB/the feeder index still neutral, possible fund selling yesterday
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -0.73 select +1.34 packer BE at 207.26, packer cushion $6.35
↓ While still higher on the week cash trades eased in NE from 206 Wednesday to 204.50 yesterday
↔ BB and the feeder index have been neutral all week but still worth watching every update as a sizable move in either could have instant market reaction
↔ Yesterday may have seen fund selling, general trading patterns would suggest yes although the open interest report was not able to confirm it, for now we can call it a “maybe”
↓ Even on higher moves cautious trade has been seen and that is likely to continue short term