Corn – NO new tariffs announced, funds continue to buy, little to hold corn back from fair value now
↑ After 3 months of cautious fear trade (which eased the last 2 weeks), there were NO new tariffs announced yesterday, trade had expected immediate tariffs on day 1 of Trump taking office
↑ Funds continue to buy, they were +39K on Friday’s COT report, now long 292K or 68% record
↑ Removing tariff threats, even if just short term, removes need for price to stay under far value
↔ First chart resistance is 508 ¼ and fair value remains at 520
Beans – NO new tariffs even larger story for beans, funds pick up buying pace, ARG rains start day 6
↑ There was far more tariff fear trade in beans than any other Ag market, seeing no new tariffs on day 1 likely to have a much larger impact on beans than most other markets
↑ Funds pick up their bean buying pace, now aggressive, +63K now long 35K, just 14% of record so far ↔ ARG sees light rains days 1 – 5, it is day 6 and further out when more moderate rains are seen so there are rains in the forecast but ARG still needs to wait almost a week before something meaningful
↑ Like corn, removing tariff fear on day 1 means price should have a more open path to 1100 fair value
Wheat – The lack of new tariffs is easing back strength in the dollar, wheat should react most to that
↑ On not placing tariffs the dollar is easing in overnight trade and may help to remove one of they key resistance factors wheat has been reacting to
↓ Funds remain sellers of 6K wheat, now short 94K or 58% of record
↑ The recent cold weather snap may help add support, some in trade will question if damage was done
Cattle – BB slightly lower yesterday, talk of feeder prices easing, cash trade last week +$0.19
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -0.53 select -0.39 packer BE at 207.26, packer cushion $6.10
↓ A few different slightly disappointing factors in cattle to end last week, first being cash only +0.19 when it was likely +$1 or +1.50 was expected
↓ BB stepping back slightly, only slightly so far but if it sets back with the feeder index, it could have a larger impact
↔ There is talk that cash feeder prices have started to ease in sale barns, traders will wait to see this confirmed on the feeder index
↑ Fund buying is slowing but continues, +4K, now long 147K or 95% of record, they also bought feeder cattle again last week and have are 109% of record in that market, funds getting quite extended