Corn – Spill over support is back on, likely most will expect Friday’s report neutral to slightly bullish
↑ SA maps are still on the drier side which is supporting beans and spilling support to corn
↑ With both ethanol and exports still above USDA expectations there is a chance at seeing USDA raise
demand on Friday causing a slightly bullish report (raising fair value above 470)
↔Looking back over 30 years of USDA reports we also note that when yield is lowered in November
(as it was this year) it is very often lowered again, at least slightly, on the January crop report
↔Friday looked to be mostly Friday profit taking selling although OI also suggests light fund selling
Beans – ARG/Southern BRA still dry on morning 10 day maps, Friday’s report neutral/slightly bullish
↑ Morning maps don’t show much change from last week, still mostly dry for ARG and southern BRA
↔There is a chance that most of Friday’s selling were longs exiting just in case the maps added a bunch
of rain to start this week but that is not what we are seeing so some or most support may return
↑ Like corn, USDA could raise demand slightly Friday which would mean a slightly bullish report
↔Exports remain on pace to beat USDA expectations even with a seasonal slowdown expected going
forward, a strong weekly export report for this time of year is well under 1000K
Wheat – Mostly still following other markets but with still a hint of a more bearish tone
↑ Following corn/beans last night as this market has been doing quite often recently
↓ While wheat will follow other markets, it does so more aggressively on setbacks which gives this
market a more bearish tone while corn is slightly bullish and beans appear choppy/neutral
↓ Friday’s low in March CHI was a new contract low, weakest of all Ag markets
Cattle – BB bounces, feeder index at new highs, cash $2 to $2.50 higher, still saw Friday profit taking
↔Friday’s PM BB was choice +1.76 select +2.49 packer BE at 197.47, packer cushion $4.79
↑ BB bounced back Friday after seeing the previous 3 days all slightly lower, BB to new recent highs
↑ The feeder index bounce Friday took that to new all-time highs of 265.76
↑ Cash traded mostly $2 higher last week but some NE trades reached the all important $200 level
which was +$3.57 for that area
↔Now we will see if the $200 area for cash/futures will act as aggressive of resistance as it did the first
2 times that either cash or futures attempted to reach $201, this week could answer that question
↔Friday’s selling may have been profit taking, “What if next week’s trade can’t move over $200?”