Corn attempted to shrug off the bean setback until beans fell more than 20 cents which then corn had to follow, if beans continue to ease spillover pressure on corn, corn can bounce on its own news

After last week’s slowdown in exports to 947K estimates for this week have eased slightly from strong expectations in previous weeks to now more moderate expectations

This is also the seasonal strongest week for basis, another factor which suggests not storing

During strong production years (like this year) this week is seasonally the strongest week for basis which may also attract some producer selling

Exports were disappointing yesterday at 947K, on a fundamental basis one poor week is not a major,event but we know traders have been cautious of an export slow down so some easing is expected

Just as we have seen the previous 5 weeks, traders are leaving price at a level that assumes poorexports of 1000K or lower

Some major questions trade is likely to have: Can the export new export goal be reached? While notas difficult, can the new ethanol goal be reached? 2 questions which may limit a move towards 470

Going into this report corn is priced at a level that assumes a small carryout decline which is expectedtoday. Beans are still trading a carryout number a fair amount higher than 0.469 and wheat is inbetween those two priced slightly low but not as drastic as beans.

The pre report buying is likely to remain small as the expected carryout change is only likely to movefair value from 440 up to around 445

We may see some light pre buying of Tuesday’s report but most traders are still avoiding anything aggressively long for fear of what may happen to exports after Jan 20th

We may see some light pre buying of Tuesday’s report but most traders are still avoiding anything aggressively long for fear of what may happen to exports after Jan 20th

We may still see pre report buying ahead of Tuesday but without seeing at least some 8 AM sales that bounce might be limited, trade’s largest concern right now is exports slowing

As soon as Euro markets opened last night all grains saw a new round of pressure, possibly fearingtariffs again but there wasn’t much in fresh tariff news yesterday/last night

March at 430 holds this market again, Dec crop report a week away and may be supportive

The monthly corn for ethanol report was a bearish surprise. USDA reported only 460 million bushels processed during October. This was minimally below last year, -0.4%. It was a bit of a surprise as the weekly ethanol production reports for October ran about +3% vs. last year.

As with corn the tariff headline threat will have less effect over time and especially so if currentexports continue strong but for now we should link the word “tariff” with “slightly bearish reaction

Just like corn, trade is likely to remain cautious even on seeing strong exports as most are concerned about upcoming tariff increases to China which may slow their buying pace down the road

Next month’s December crop report won’t likely make many changes but could serve as a reminder how under priced corn/beans are right now, it could be lightly supportive without changing anything

After yesterday’s active selling a small technical bounce was seen, likely aided by not seeing the dollar move higher last night, March CHI can bounce to 571 ¾ and still hold the downtrend line

It may seem hard to believe but fair value for Jan is still 1035 and exports have not slowed enough to change that level, this means all that is needed for a moderate recovery is export fear to ease