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Funds buy 19K, light new tariff concerns, resistance still expected near 500

Funds buy 19K, light new tariff concerns, resistance still expected near 500 

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Signs fund buying picked up again, exports expected moderate, ARG cut corn export tariff 

Signs fund buying picked up again, exports expected moderate, ARG cut corn export tariff 

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Signs fund buying continues but is slowing, the path to 520 may slow drastically without them

Signs fund buying continues but is slowing, the path to 520 may slow drastically without them

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Corn Reluctant to move lower possibly from continued fund buying, tariffs not as threatening corn

Morning 10 day SA precip – ARG and southern BRA still see a forecast for rainfall improvements from days 7 to further out.

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January 2025 Cattle on Feed Estimates

The following are our estimates for the coming Cattle on Feed report.

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Ethanol moderate, exports expected moderate/poor, some end of week selling possible 

Ethanol moderate, exports expected moderate/poor, some end of week selling possible

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Ethanol expected strong again today, open interest spiking higher suggesting fund buying 

Ethanol will be expected strong again on today’s report, likely close to last week’s 1102K 

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New corn carryout suggests a sizeable move higher in fair value, new level is 520 minimum

Friday’s USDA report cut carryout by 198 mil bu, that new level of 1.540 now raises the fair valuelevel to a minimum of 520, the last time corn posted a carryout of 1.500 old crop was trading at $6

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We expecttrade to continue operating at a discount to fair value but a lower carryout would still be supportive.

The new carryout numbers if seen as estimated would hint at fair values of 485 and 1050. We expecttrade to continue operating at a discount to fair value but a lower carryout would still be supportive.

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Exports delayed until tomorrow, seasonal export setback expected this week, cautious trade

The ARG forecast still has some light rains that were added yesterday, southern BRA rains are a bit heavier but likely not reaching normal levels just yet

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Funds major buyers of 68K, spill over pressure from beans, reason to expect a bullish report

Overnight trade saw a new round of panic selling in beans which spilled some pressure to corn

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Spill over support is back on, likely most will expect Friday’s report neutral to slightly bullish

Looking back over 30 years of USDA reports we also note that when yield is lowered in November(as it was this year) it is very often lowered again, at least slightly, on the January crop report

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