Quick Studies

October corn for ethanol usage disappoints.

The monthly corn for ethanol report was a bearish surprise. USDA reported only 460 million bushels processed during October. This was minimally below last year, -0.4%. It was a bit of a surprise as the weekly ethanol production reports for October ran about +3% vs. last year.

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Cattle on Feed called lightly bearish.

This afternoon's monthly COF report found October feedlot placements +5.3% from last year. The trade estimate was +3.8% (ALDL +2.8%). The 2.286 million head estimate would be the largest October inflow in seven years. October inflows help determine April - September fed cattle supplies.

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Packer kill cuts drive cattle weights higher.

The weekly Actual Slaughter report detailed meat production statistics for the third week of October.

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Wheat export sales remain near the average.

Wheat export sales came to 411,424 tonnes in sales for last week's activity. The trade estimate was 300,000 - 600,000.

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Record soybean export sales for this week.

This week's sale was reported at a record for this specific week, 2,273,262 tonnes.

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Second best corn export sales for this week.

Today's report covers activity from 10/18 - 10/24. Corn export sales this past week were great at 2,341,667 tonnes.

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Winter wheat ratings post their second lowest start for the year. Corn/soybean harvest remains accelerated.

US corn harvest was estimated by USDA at 81% complete. The trade expected 80%. It remains far over the five year average of 64%.

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South American Rainfall Update October 28th

Near-normal rains were noted for Brazil last week. Argentina saw double the normal rain last week.

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Cattle on Feed suggests a smooth and measured supply decline ahead.

USDA's monthly Cattle on Feed was out this afternoon. The feedlot survey found September inflows, placements, -1.9% from one year ago.

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Soybean export sales continue the recent positive pace.

This week's sale was reported at 2,151,743 tonnes. The trade estimate was 1,200,000 - 2,400,000. Overnight reported sales in this period came to 598,8000, 28% of the total.

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Meat export sales remain on track.

Weekly beef export sales came to 16,712 tonnes last week. This was -4% from one year ago. Year to date sales are +1% vs. last year. Sales are over USDA's current goal of -3%.

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Wheat export sales show consistency.

Wheat export sales posted a good 532,885 tonnes in sales for last week's activity. The trade estimate was 350,000 - 650,000. There was one 120,000 tonne overnight sale that applied to this week.

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Second best corn export sales for this specific week.

Today's report covers activity from 10/11 - 10/17. Corn export sales this past week were huge at 3,602,594 tonnes. This was the second largest sale in history for this specific week

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Early year ethanol production pace holds firm.

This new crop year is forecast to see 5.450 billion bushels of corn for ethanol. That is -0.4% from last year. At this time, we do not have efficiency data for this new harvest.

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Corn sees record export sales last week.

Today's report covers activity from 10/4 - 10/10. Corn export sales this past week were huge at 2,225,716 tonnes. The trade estimate was 1,200,000 - 2,200,000.

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Wheat exports have stabilized above the needed pace.

Wheat export sales posted a good 504,112 tonnes in sales for last week's activity. The trade estimate was 250,000 - 550,000.

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Beef and pork export sales surpass the goal.

Weekly beef export sales came to 14,501 tonnes last week. It was far over the low 425 posted last year in the same week. Year to date sales are +1% vs. last year. Sales are over USDA's current goal of -3%.

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Soybeans see their second best export sale for this week.

This week's sale was reported at 1,702,727 tonnes. The trade estimate was 1,000,000 - 2,200,000. Overnight reported sales in this period came to 470,500, 28% of the total.

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Cattle weights +2.8% from last year, hogs +1.4%.

The weekly Actual Slaughter report detailed meat production statistics for the first week of October.

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Ethanol production holds firm.

Last week's ethanol production, 1.042 million barrels per day, was +0.7% from last year. The prior five weeks were also positive at +2.7%. We are ahead of USDA's goal.

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Charts - US Corn, Soybean and Wheat exports to China.

US Corn, Soybean and Wheat exports to China.

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Brazil now has a cheaper soybean export bid.

For only 2 ½ months the US held the title as the cheapest soybean export bid.

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NOPA September crush surpasses expectations.

The National Oilseed Processors Association, NOPA, released September soybean crush this morning. 177.320 million bushels were processed in the first month of the new marketing year. That was better than the 170.331 trade expectation.

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