Cattle on Feed suggests a smooth and measured supply decline ahead.

USDA's monthly Cattle on Feed was out this afternoon. The feedlot survey found September inflows, placements, -1.9% from one year ago. The trade estimate was -4.0% (ALDL -2.8%). These numbers determine a part of March - July offered fed cattle supplies. This lightly lower placement also fits in with prior months. January - September placements have so far run -1.9%. This group determines Q4 through a part of Q2 feedlot offerings. Essentially, we're set for a continued smooth a measured supply decline ahead.

September outflows from feedlots, marketings, were noted at +2.0% year/year. The trade estimate was +2.0% (ALDL +2.0%). This helps bring the October 1 On Feed number down from +0.6% year over year to now even. The trade estimate was -0.3% as of October 1 (ALDL +0.1%).

Every three months the Cattle on Feed report also gives us a breakdown of the feedlot by class. There are two parts of the US breeding herd contraction/expansion question, cow culling and heifers retained for the cow herd. While cow culling has stepped back a bit we can still note that heifers were 39.7% of the feedlot on October 1. That is the second largest percentage in over 15 years. There is no increase in heifer retention. The US breeding herd has stabilized for now.

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