Soybeans see their second best export sale for this week.

This week's sale was reported at 1,702,727 tonnes. The trade estimate was 1,000,000 - 2,200,000. Overnight reported sales in this period came to 470,500, 28% of the total.

There has been a clear reversal in export pricing. Back on 10/4 the US held a $41 per tonne price advantage over Brazil, separate from their shipping advantage. Today, Brazil holds a $13 discount to the US bid.

USDA's current goal for the year is 1.850 billion bushels. That would be -5% vs. the prior five year average. Current crop sales have improved to -20% vs. the five year average. The remainder of the year needs to run +8% vs. the five year average. This past week with strong sales was +15% vs. average. The prior four weeks were +7%.

Sales are still behind USDA's goal. We have slowly made up some of the deficit and are still making sales. Keep in mind this week's overnight sales, which apply to next Thursday's weekly report, are the best week since the start of September. Given the change in export pricing, and our concerns about the Mississippi, the view is to either meet USDA's current goal or fall short.

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