Corn – Weather maps still solid looking out 10 days, GTE could be lowered today
↓ Weather maps continue to show regular moderate rains and slightly above average temperatures
↑ The corn GTE could fall another 1% - 2% today, if it does it would still be over the 5 year average
↔ Starting tomorrow it is likely most trade attention will turn to pre trading Friday’s acreage report,
pre traders are likely to anticipate lower acreage so we may start seeing pre buying
↓ December took out 3 ½ month lows so now, like beans, the only chart support left is contract low 446
↔ For upside movement Friday’s report is crucial, if it does not offer support then the next predictable
round of support will not be seen for some time and weather threats are not extreme enough
Beans – Old crop seems to be anticipating 8 AM sales, weather maps solid, Friday’s report is key
↑ Old crop contracts leading all others in overnight, may either know or be anticipating 8 AM sales
↓ Solid 10 day forecast maps continue to limit weather related concern
↓ Nov made new contract lows last week of 1113 ¼, next sizable chart support is difficult to find
↔ As with corn, Friday’s report is crucial for any upside move, at least for beans there is another
chance for upside in August IF weather threats are seen at that time
↔ Remember that planting pace reports were ahead all spring, that does not suggest large acres lost
Wheat – July CHI has almost reached the 530 – 550 downside target, harvest pressure still expected
↓ Our downside target for July CHI was 530 – 550 if funds moved back to being sellers which recent
COT reports have suggested, there is still more downside but better support is expected soon
↓ Harvest still well under way this week to continue at least light harvest pressure
↔ The COT report is delayed until this afternoon, we will see if funds are still sellers of wheat
Cattle – Placements 104.3, BB still moving higher, last week’s ave cash trade should be slightly higher
↔ Friday’s PM BB was choice -0.48 Select -1.29 packer BE at 198.60, packer cushion $10.24
↓ Placements on Friday’s COF were 104.3 which was higher than the highest estimate and a surprise
↑ BB is choppy but is still on a slow grind higher over all
↑ Last week’s average cash trade will be expected +$1 to +$1.50
↔ Packers are still living “hand to mouth”, if BB moves higher to offer profits they can pay up in cash
but if BB moves sideways or lower this will stop quickly, that is why we keep watching BB closely