Corn – GTE down 3% at 69%, funds buyers of 21K, analysts anticipating acres +317K on Friday
↑ GTE ratings fell the 3% that analysts expected, now at 69%, the 5 year average is 62%
↑ Funds were buyers of 21K on yesterday’s COT report, likely most in trade will find this surprising
↔ Funds now hold a 56% of record short position, a level where they could either buy or sell
↓ Acreage is expected to go up 317K on Friday’s report, if we assume trend yields this would project a final December price closer to right at $4
↓ December corn made new 2 ½ year lows yesterday which doesn’t leave much for chart levels to expect support, the last major level is just above the round 400 level
Beans – GTE down 3% at 67%, funds sellers of 30K, analysts anticipating acres +243K on Friday
↑ GTE ratings fell 1% more than expected at 67%, likely due to recent western corn belt rains
↓ Funds were sellers of 30K, now at 62% of record shorts, similar to their position in corn
↓ Analysts are expecting acreage +243K Friday, assuming trend yields this projects near $10
↔ As with corn, a fund position of 67% of record shorts is not aggressive enough to start assuming short covering soon, it is also not enough to say they can’t continue to add shorts, just watch closely
↔ As with corn, beans are making 2 ½ year lows making chart support areas tough to find now
Wheat – Spring GTE down 5% at 71%, funds sellers of 8K, analysts anticipating acres +159K on Friday
↑ Spring wheat GTE down a surprising 5% now at 71%, the 5 year average is still at 57%
↓ Funds added to shorts by selling 8K, not as aggressive as corn/beans, now short 32% of record
↓ Analysts are looking for acreage to be +159K on Friday, a relatively small change
Cattle – Nearby 100% focused on cash trades and BB, deferred was held back by high Placements
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +0.25 Select +1.96 packer BE at 199.30, packer cushion $8.75
↑ June/August contracts remain 100% focused on BB and cash trades which continue strong
↓ December and further out contracts are being held back due to the surprising high Placements Friday
↑ As long as BB continues higher, the over all trend remains supportive but deferred contracts may continue to be held back, this could also attract spread traders buying nearby and selling deferred
↑ This week’s showlist is -22K which raises the chances at seeing a higher cash trade
↑ Packers are starting the week with profits at $8.75 which is high enough to assume higher cash