The weekly Actual Slaughter report this morning detailed meat production statistics for the first week of May.

The general long term weather narrative for 2024 was one of above normal temperatures for all and below normal moisture during the summer for the Plains and much of the Western Cornbelt. This forecast had been in general agreement among government and private forecasters, with some moderate differences.

Beef export sales of 15,132 tonnes were reported. This was -13% from last year. Beef sales have been on a good run recently except for last week's -26% and this week's -13%. Year to date sales have improved from -13% year/year back in March to now -7% That is on USDA’s whole-year goal of -7%.

Brazil's pricing advantage remains in place. However, it has significantly narrowed.

Weekly export sales today cover Fri 5/3 – Thu 5/9 activity.

We have been expecting to clearly exceed USDA's general crush goal for months. However, this is strongly needed as an offset to poor export sales. Today's disappointing report removes some of the needed help. Lowering our remaining year hopes to now +4% to +7% we are likely down to an overage vs. USDA of +16 to +37 million bushels.

Monthly inflation numbers showed a light decline from March's +3.5% year/year growth rate to +3.4% in April. This was on the trade expectation. This is a light rebuttal to the prior day's report showing a light increase in wholesale level price inflation. Markets now have priced in a 73% chance at a cut in short term interest rates at the September meeting of the Fed's policy making board.

USDA surprised us last week with a 50 million bushel increase for old crop corn for ethanol usage. Now at 5.450 billion bushels, it would be +5.3% from last year's 5.176. There were others in the industry who agreed with this move.