NOAA issued new 3 month outlooks yesterday which has slightly above average temps for most growing areas, heat to the far south and mostly normal rains over growing areas

The weekly Actual Slaughter report this morning detailed meat production statistics for the first week of May.

The general long term weather narrative for 2024 was one of above normal temperatures for all and below normal moisture during the summer for the Plains and much of the Western Cornbelt. This forecast had been in general agreement among government and private forecasters, with some moderate differences.

Beef export sales of 15,132 tonnes were reported. This was -13% from last year. Beef sales have been on a good run recently except for last week's -26% and this week's -13%. Year to date sales have improved from -13% year/year back in March to now -7% That is on USDA’s whole-year goal of -7%.

USDA’s 720 million bushel export goal, for the year that started June 1, is -19% from the five year average sale. Year to date shipments are -16% from average and total 644.

Brazil's pricing advantage remains in place. However, it has significantly narrowed.

Weekly export sales today cover Fri 5/3 – Thu 5/9 activity.

Yesterday’s crush report was a 7 month low of 166 mil bu (trade expected 183 mil bu)

We have been expecting to clearly exceed USDA's general crush goal for months. However, this is strongly needed as an offset to poor export sales. Today's disappointing report removes some of the needed help. Lowering our remaining year hopes to now +4% to +7% we are likely down to an overage vs. USDA of +16 to +37 million bushels.

Monthly inflation numbers showed a light decline from March's +3.5% year/year growth rate to +3.4% in April. This was on the trade expectation. This is a light rebuttal to the prior day's report showing a light increase in wholesale level price inflation. Markets now have priced in a 73% chance at a cut in short term interest rates at the September meeting of the Fed's policy making board.

USDA surprised us last week with a 50 million bushel increase for old crop corn for ethanol usage. Now at 5.450 billion bushels, it would be +5.3% from last year's 5.176. There were others in the industry who agreed with this move.

Planting fears continue, CONAB raises BRA production, Nov resistance in the 1210 – 1225 area

Planting at 49% (54% ave), 1 – 5 day lowered rains slightly, 6 – 10 day raised rains

Nationwide corn planting advanced from 36% complete to now 49% over the past week. That was on the 49% trade expectation. For a second week in a row planting is behind the five year average.

Funds cover 116K shorts, morning maps don’t have quite as much rain as Friday’s maps -615

Managed Money buying, shown in five of six weeks have brought their net short position up to -42,360 contracts. This is their most bullish position since November 1, 2022.

Over the past three week's Brazil's four states which produce the bulk of second crop corn have seen a return to dryness.

The May supply/demand report from USDA covers the typical old crop changes noted in prior months. That includes adjustments to the US situation as well as updated South American production numbers. The trade is highly focused on this report given that it includes full new crop balance sheets for both the US and world. For corn and soybeans these new crop estimates held trend yields. That is normally and fully expected. Summer weather will drive this estimate higher or lower.

USDA will post their monthly supply and demand report at 11:00 CST