Corn – Heat breaks in 24 hours, below ave temps and rain in the key pollination timeframe
↓ The heat breaks in 1 day and it is replaced with moderate rains and below average temperatures for days 2 – 10 in the forecast which is also an important timeframe for pollination
↔Funds sold 17K, now short a new record 354K, selling from them expected to end soon
↑ Friday’s surprise supportive report raises fair value for December to 420 – 430
↓ It is being reported from multiple sources that the producer is holding onto a large amount of corn, this fact is unlikely to drive price lower but will act as very strong resistance to bounces
Beans – Improved 10 day weather maps, funds now at a new record short for beans, demand slow
↓ Morning 10 day maps showing a break in heat and widespread rains are adding resistance to beans just as much as corn, it isn’t August yet but this is a solid forecast for July
↔Funds sold 32K and are also at a new record short now of 173K
↔Trade continues to look for a sudden pickup of China buying and while there have been a few 8 AM reports, they have not yet added up to a significant total on the week, last week was 399K
↓ Beans made new lows for the move, next larger chart support still not expected until 1000
Wheat – Overseas wheat is picking up speed to the downside, US wheat is following
↓ Overseas wheat is picking up speed on its setback likely due to much stronger yield numbers out of Russia than expected, remember that in all the fear trade over the Russian crop there was one weather analyst out of Ukraine that expected almost no yield decline, that may now be accurate
↑ Funds lightly bought 5K, still short 96K or 43% of record, we will see if fund short covering continues
Cattle – BB down for a 5th day, Friday’s cash trade tough to estimate again, likely down around $1
↔Friday’s PM BB was choice +0.41 Select -1.07 packer BE at 198.24, packer cushion $4.21
↓ BB was down for a 5th day in a row yesterday, it is not falling fast but does start packer profits near $4 this week which can already start an assumption of $1 to $2 lower cash
↔Last week’s average cash trade was again tough to estimate with some late improved price levels yet the weekly average may be expected close to $1 lower
↔With futures priced $10 under the cash trade from 2 weeks ago, a lower move in cash may not mean much of a lower move for futures, at this rate futures already have 5 – 7 weeks of lower cash priced in
↔Funds sold 1500 but still have not been a major influence in cattle in about a year and a half