Corn – Exports expected slightly poor around 800K, weather maps still show solid rains next 10 days -
↓ Exports are expected to slow slightly this week to a slightly poor 800K
↓ Weather maps still suggest active rains in the 10 day forecast for almost all growing areas
↓ December made new 2 ½ year lows, next support is not expected until 400
↔We may see some bargain buyers step in today ahead of tomorrow’s report, while the odds of a bullish surprise is low, the potential reward is large enough that some speculators might buy today
Beans – Exports expected strong around 550K, weather maps still add resistance
↑ Opposite of corn, exports are expected to remain slightly strong this week around 550K
↓ Like corn, weather maps are still difficult to find many problems in the 10 day outlook
↔Friday’s report will be highly important, if it doesn’t offer a surprise bounce we may have to wait until August to see if there are weather threats and in that time price is likely to grind lower
↑ Nov is now close to 1100 which isn’t important chart support but is at least some level that buyers can step in at so we may see slightly better support near that level
Wheat – Exports expected poor around 200K, July hits our downside target, harvest still active
↓ Exports are expected poor today around 200K today
↔July CHI has hit our downside target range of 530 – 550
↓ HRW harvest continues to be highly active so we expect harvest pressure to continue for now
Cattle – The FCE traded TX cash at 193, futures ended yesterday pricing in 194, no major trades yet
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -0.54 Select -2.40 packer BE at 198.66, packer cushion $8.11
↑ The FCE traded cash in TX at 193, then futures jumped to a level that pre priced in a 194 trade
↔Through yesterday there were no cash trades posted to a major packer yet but it is likely trade will be looking for at least 193 but more likely 194
↔If packers pay $3 higher this week it will take profit levels right back down to a level where a BB move higher will be needed just to trade cash higher next week, it continues that packers are living “hand to mouth” on profitability so every day’s move in BB matters right now