Corn – Volatility has slowed drastically since funds moved to the sidelines, exports expected at 1000K
↓ Exports are expected moderate near 1000K although some light pre selling might be seen as last week’s exports were disappointing at 720K meaning some may be expecting that again
↔Weather maps still not changing much, light/moderate rains west days 1 – 5, moderate rains east days 6 – 10 and below average temps out 8 days, after that 8 day period temps move back to normal
↔Total trade movement has slowed drastically since funds moved to the sidelines last week
↑↓ Price is under fair value given current carryout which attracts some buyers yet weather maps still look great for pollination which prevents a bounce from moving very far
Beans – Exports expected poor, Nov moves to new lows, still too early to predict August weather
↓ Exports are expected to be poor like last week’s 399K
↔There continues to be talk of China buying US beans but no 8 AM sales to confirm that
↓ Nov moved to new lows, next chart support is still not expected until near 1000
↔While some forecasters are making early predictions about August weather, it is still too far out for traders to put their money on just yet, we might start to see that next week
↔All recent bounces do not have signs of fund short covering (as some analysts are claiming)
Wheat – Slight optimism over exports, overseas higher last night, solid weather for finishing harvest
↑ After 3 weeks of strong exports then last week seeing poor exports, there may still be a bias towards expecting strong exports this morning back above 600K
↑ Overseas wheat trade was slightly higher last night, spilling over some light support to our markets
↔There are light rains in the 5 day outlook but nothing that should slow the finish of harvest
Cattle – BB still moving lower, KS/TX cash trade $2 to $3 lower, futures bounced but caution advised
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -2.23 Select -3.23 packer BE at 195.77, packer cushion $5.92
↓ BB continues lower and even though futures traded higher yesterday we have 2 years of data showing that both cash and futures eventually follow the direction of boxed beef
↓ Cash traded $3 lower in KS/TX then $2 lower (188) yesterday
↔Yesterday’s futures bounce helped to narrow the very large gap between cash and futures, as of yesterday’s close futures were priced $2.50 under yesterday’s reported trades (this was $10 last week)