Corn – Exports expected strong today near 1400K, Dec at 420 might be where trade is comfortable
↑ Exports are expected strong at 1400K or higher, this would follow last week’s strong trade of 1684K
↔Last month’s fair value level was 410, analysts estimate for tomorrow’s report would suggest 435, trade may be comfortable with a middle-of-the-road level going into the report near 420
↔Fund trade was not seen yesterday morning, showing signs of further gradual slowing
↑ Yesterday’s ethanol at 1038K was strong, our pace on the year is +2.5% from last year, USDA estimate compared to last year is -0.4%
Beans – Nov stays near last month’s fair value level as tomorrow’s report is expected to be neutral
↔Nov is not separating far from last month's fair value level of 1010 – 1020 which is due to most in trade expecting that tomorrow’s report will be neutral
↔There are no estimates for a yield change tomorrow in either corn or beans
↔Exports for today are expected moderate around 1300K
↔BRA 10 day rainfall totals were increased even further this morning, ARG expecting moderate rains, still not looking for trade to react much to these just yet but worth knowing for when they do
Wheat – Some rain added on day 10 of the forecast but it isn’t much, exports expected strong at 425K
↑ Exports are expected strong for wheat today at 425K, in line with last week’s 444K
↔Overseas wheat has also bounced recently and there is talk that funds overseas are liquidating shorts there as well, likely on Russian weather concerns
↔A narrow band of 1” to 1 ½” rains were added on day 10 of the HRW forecast but coverage is limited
Cattle – BB slightly higher again, packers bidding 187 in IA/NE which is steady with last week
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +1.34 select +0.02 packer BE at 189.49, packer cushion $3.38
↔Packers waited until after the futures close but ended up bidding steady in IA and NE just as we saw last week, same pattern expected this week where packers may pay +$1 but will be reluctant to do so
↔Packer profits at $3 is better than the last 2 weeks but still not a level we should expect aggressive packer bids, they are still in “limit losses mode” this week
↔Even after yesterday’s small setback the opinion of futures has not changed much, as of yesterday’s close they were still priced almost $3 over last week’s cash