Corn – Strong enough ethanol and exports this week to see at least some support, traders rolling
↑ Both the ethanol and export numbers were strong enough this week to provide at least light support
↔Most of yesterday’s trade appeared focused on rolling December positions to March
↔Given that traders are starting the roll, that means if we place new orders it is likely best to use the March contract, we do not need to exit Dec yet as the rolling has just started
↑ Yesterday’s trade moved just slightly below 410 but it is clear that level is still seeing strong support
↓ OI was down 14K suggesting that many are rolling but some are simply exiting positions in Dec
Beans – Exports strong enough to continue support, first resistance expected around 1020 in Jan
↑ Exports at 2273K were strong enough to continue support, especially from the near contract low levels that beans had gotten close to, contract lows for Jan are 973 ½
↔Both corn/beans are seeing resistance at fair value levels which for Jan beans is around 1020
↔Still no concerns in the 10 day SA weather outlook, both BRA and ARG continue seeing active rains
↑ Bean oil is continuing the move higher following a surge higher in palm oil, this is spilling over support to beans as well, bean oil continues overnight to make new 3 ½ month highs
↔Exports are likely to remain the #1 influence as long as SA weather maps offer no threats
Wheat – Exports moderate at 411K, not much change to the 2 rain systems starting tomorrow
↔Exports were 411K which will be considered moderate, possibly enough to slow the lower slide
↑ The back to back rain systems starting tomorrow is still expected to offer wide coverage of 1 ½” with top end totals 10” – 11”, the track is now slightly more east missing some HRW areas though
↔Rain coverage and totals by Monday are likely to influence trade to start next week
Cattle – BB continues lower now to a sizable concerning level, no new cash trades seen yesterday
↓ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -1.84 select -3.95 packer BE at 191.44, packer cushion $1.24
↓ BB continues lower which is likely to cause pressure on futures today, BB is now in the “highly concerning” category as it comes to looking at next week’s potential cash trade
↓ Packer profits have fallen under the $2 level that we have seen packers defend 6 other times this year, it is the level where they put in extra effort to limit losses (mostly lowering cash bids)
↔With so many cash trades seen on Wednesday we may not see any more reported trades today, if that is the case it is estimated that the average cash trade will likely be around 189.50 (0.50 lower)
↓ The slowdown in slaughter caused a 10 lb move higher in dressed steer weights yesterday