Soybeans see a positive one week for old crop sales. More old and new sales are needed.

Brazil generally has a price advantage for both old and new crop delivery.

Sales of 360,1112 tonnes were reported for US old crop soybean export sales. The trade estimate was 150,000 – 600,000.

USDA’s 1.700 billion bushel soybean export estimate is -14% from the five year average sale. Year to date sales are currently -16% from average. The remainder of the year is normally one with minimal sales. To meet USDA’s goal the remaining weeks through August need to improve to +182% from average. The prior four weeks sale sales of +17% vs. average. This week was a positive old crop sale, the best in four weeks. It was also much over the 27,845 five year average sale for this week. Even if you exclude the one cancellation in that five year period, it is still over the other four year average of 125,527. We are not ready to suggest this positive week is the start of a new trend. If remaining sales “improve” to +25% vs. average we'll miss USDA's goal by -36 million bushels.

With seven weeks left in the old crop marketing year our attention turns to shipments. Year to date shipments are okay at -13% from average. That is slightly over USDA's whole-year goal. Remaining shipments can fall to -26% and meet USDA's goal. The prior four week period saw shipments -20%. This week was a poor one at -59%.

Overall, we still lean for a miss vs. USDA on old crop.

NEW CROP

There was an overnight export sale included for new crop, the 7/10 sale to Chinese buyers of 132,000. Today's total new crop sale was 375,025. This brings the year to date bookings to 1.942 million tonnes. That is the lowest booking in 19 years. USDA sees new crop sales -7% from the prior five year average. Current bookings are -75% from the five year average.

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