Corn – Small pre report buying expected again, analysts look for -32 mln bu carryout, suggests 445
↑ Tomorrow’s USDA report is expected to lower carryout 32 mil bu which may draw in some light
additional pre report buying today
↔The pre report buying is likely to remain small as the expected carryout change is only likely to move
fair value from 440 up to around 445
↔After tomorrow’s report we will see if fear selling returns which has dominated trade for 2 weeks
↓ Funds were sellers of 9K on Friday’s COT report, this also likely contributed to recent trade under fair
value, funds are not showing a pattern of long term consistent buying or selling right now though
Beans – Also seeing small pre report buying, funds cover 9K shorts, SA maps still very solid
↑ Even though carryout is only expected to fall 1 mil bu tomorrow that still supports the 1035 fair value
level meaning pre buying in the 990’s can still be seen today
↑ Funds covered 9K shorts, this may cause some recent fear selling to ease up for those traders who
were following fund selling before, like corn fund trade in beans has been mostly sideways/choppy
↓ SA maps still look very solid with strong rains for both ARG and BRA in the 10 day outlook
↑ Last week’s exports were strong enough to be a record for that week, active exports continue
Wheat – Finding more support after taking out the downtrend line last week, March near fair value
↑ Taking out the 2 month long downtrend line last week was an important sign of better support and
may attract at least light buying following through
↔March CHI is near the fair value level of 570, some light pre buying for the report still expected
↓ Funds have been trending in wheat and for this market that means more selling, COT showed -10K
Cattle – BB higher Friday, feeder index still racing higher, funds buy 7K
↔Friday’s PM BB was choice +4.20 select -0.37 packer BE at 186.93, packer cushion -$2.92
↔Most of last week’s trades looked steady with the previous week, mostly around 190
↑ Funds were buyers again, last week +7K, they have been consistent buyers for 10 weeks now
↔Funds are now long 122K which is 79% of record
↑ The feeder index is still racing higher, up 1.36 Friday alone and +12.81 over the last 3 weeks
↔Most of the recent cattle support is likely from that feeder index running higher due to the boarder
closure with Mexico, that means we will want to be on the watch for any headline updates on that issue
speculating/hedging