Corn – Another round of tariff talk from Trump, March at 430 continues to be a support area
↓ Another tariff headline was seen yesterday as Trump discussed the potential for 100% tariffs on BRIC
countries if they attempted to influence the US dollar
↔We have seen 2 weeks of light concern due to tariff talk and that is likely to continue raising concern
about upcoming exports, each headline may start to have less of an impact but prevent bounces
↔Last week’s exports did slow to a disappointing level of 1130K, first disappointing report in 8 weeks
↑ On all this tariff concern March continues to find improved general support around 430
Beans – Same tariff concerns seen here, morning maps drier for ARG, current exports are very strong
↓ Both corn/beans are seeing pressure from tariff concerns, concern exports may change after Jan 20th
↔Morning 10 day maps were slightly drier for ARG, not yet overly concerning but something to watch
↑ While trade remains concerned about future exports, the current pace is strong with last week at
2508K and we already know this week’s report will be strong and there is talk China is still buying
↑ Recent support in Jan is in the 970’s with contract lows at 973 ½
↔As with corn the tariff headline threat will have less effect over time and especially so if current
exports continue strong but for now we should link the word “tariff” with “slightly bearish reaction
Wheat – The 2 month long downtrend continues, HRW GTE conditions strong into dormancy
↓ Wheat has been trending lower for 2 months now and continues that slow grind lower
↔Contract lows in March CHI were tested again last night, that low is at 542
↓ Seeing strong GTE ratings going into dormancy will keep general light pressure going all winter
Cattle – BB slightly lower, amazing cash trade results in possible record losses for packers last week
↔Friday’s PM BB was choice -0.71 select +/- 0.00 packer BE at 185.92, packer cushion -$0.83
↔Last week’s amazing cash trade resulted in an estimated $4 gross loss for packers (assuming a 190
ave cash price last week), the largest loss that can be seen for as long as we have tracked this number
↓ Futures are pricing in cash near 188 despite the 190 cash trade reports last week, it is possible this is
due to a seasonal expectation for a 2 week pullback that normally starts today
↔BB has recovered enough to ease the downwards grind but not enough to call it a recovery, while
we may not know how much of a loss packers are prepared to take this year, we still know that number
is not infinite