Corn – Rain totals lowered in the 10 day outlook, some heat on day 8, solid exports yesterday
↑ Rain totals and coverage were lowered in the morning 10 day outlook, some heat moves back in on day 8 of the forecast with most of the heat limited to ND/SD/NE/IA
↑ Still seeing solid support near 400 just not aggressive buyers to spark much of a bounce
↔ Exports were solid yesterday at 924K, an improvement over the previous 4 weeks
↔ There is talk that US corn prices are competitive in the export market again but we will need to see weekly exports at least over 1000K to show signs of improvement in demand
Beans – Yesterday showed a sign of export improvement, weekly sales improved, trade still defensive
↑ Weekly sales were improved at 741K and there were new crop 8 AM sales of 510K beans to unknown
↔ Trade has been waiting a long time to see improvement in exports, it will take more than one week to add better support, yesterday’s 510K beans were new crop, more support if we see old crop exports
↔ Any selling yesterday did not appear to be funds in either corn or beans, there were no major volume spikes and open interest was lower for both corn/beans
↔ Right now the range that looks to be forming is between 1000 and 1050, this may change next week when trade starts focusing on August weather forecasts
Wheat – Exports solid yesterday helping to limit the recent slide, overseas wheat higher last night
↑ Exports improved on yesterday’s weekly report back to a moderate 579K level
↑ Last night overseas wheat was actively higher which has spilled over to US wheat in overnight trade
↔ At this point there is likely more influence from Russian updates and moves in the dollar than there is from any US harvest influence
Cattle – NE traded $2 lower, BB continues lower, futures looking for BB slide to continue
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -2.01 Select +1.02 packer BE at 195.46, packer cushion $5.51
↓ NE traded cash $2 lower yesterday which matches the news out of KS/TX of $2 lower
↓ The BB slide continues being down again yesterday, now trending lower for 2 full weeks
↔ Futures are priced $4.50 under the cash trades seen this week, that is an aggressive level under cash but not extreme, simply a sign that futures feel the BB slide will continue for at least a couple weeks
↓ As long as BB moves lower we should continue to expect a general slide in both futures and cash