Corn – Slightly cautious trade, less concern about export slowdown in corn, March near fair value
↓ There is still some light cautious trade in corn but it is not as extreme as beans in expecting that exports may now slow after seeing the election results
↔March corn fair value is 430 – 440 and as of this morning, it is still trading above that level
↑ Corn has recently seen the best support out of the 3 grain markets, possibly helped by the fact funds have bought enough to go lightly long for the first time since July of last year
↔March is about to become lead contract so some important chart levels to watch: 1st resistance 447 ¾, 2nd resistance 452 ¼ (5 month high), 1st support 423 ¼, 2nd support 414 (3 month lows)
Beans – Strong concern China may quickly slow bean buying, BRA solid rains, ARG still light/moderate
↑ Yesterday there were no gov’t reports so we didn’t see any 8 AM sales but overnight traders seem to still be highly concerned that the Trump victory will mean an instant slowdown of Chinese buying
↔It will take time to know for sure if exports are slowing, it would seem to make more sense that if it was about to slow it would happen when Trump takes office, not just from becoming president elect
↔BRA still seeing solid rains, ARG lighter rains but not dry enough to call it threatening
↔Jan is under 1040 fair value, next chart support not seen until around the 980 level
Wheat – Some talk about Trump/Putin chats but most weakness still likely from highly beneficial rains
↓ There was talk that Trump/Putin chatted where Trump emphasized the need to end the war with Ukraine, that was used as a reason for the setback but there is debate if that chat ever happened
↓ Putting aside rumors, the more likely reason for the setback was HRW areas seeing the best rain in months recently and with a 10 day forecast that calls for large scale coverage of 1” to 4”
Cattle – BB on a 1 day bounce, showlist +9K, packer profits still far from an encouraging level
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +0.28 select +2.65 packer BE at 187.34, packer cushion -$0.08
↔BB was higher yesterday so far putting together a 1 day bounce, packer profits still sub $0 which is not a level that suggests we should be looking for higher cash bids
↔Tyson is releasing Q3 earnings today, it is expected that on the beef end it will show a break even or small losses, similar to their last 3 reports
↔It is unlikely we will see cash bids today so trade is more likely to focus on the AM BB report