Corn – Overnight may be expecting a day off from 8 AM sales, stock analyst calls grains undervalued
↓ Overnight not pre buying 8 AM sales, may be expecting that morning sales will take a day off
↔An analyst on CNBC yesterday said commodities, especially grains, were undervalued
↔There were 26,000 contracts of the July 450/500 call spread done yesterday alone, if that sounds
familiar it is because that is the option re ownership trade we have been doing the last 2 weeks
↔Dec can still see more “easy” upside room to fair value of 420 but moving higher than that could
start to see more resistance and will take even larger fundamental news
↑ Ethanol is expected to be strong again this week, last week was 1042K
Beans – SA weather maps still have moderate to active rains, 8 AM sales not as common as corn
↓ Still no threats on the SA weather maps, ARG sees moderate rains, BRA sees active rains in the 10 day
↔We are seeing occasional 8AM sales but nowhere near as large and as often as corn
↔There is quite a debate between analysts whether a Trump victory would mean more or less exports
to China but we haven't seen trade take an aggressive stance on this type of talk yet
↔Nov does not have nearby solid chart support and resistance levels as corn does, the two levels
worth mentioning are still the fair value of 1015 and the contract lows of 955
Wheat – Another small increase to HRW rains, Dec CHI beginning to look like a new slow grind lower
↓ Rains are not sizeable by any means but did see a small increase for HRW areas in the 10 day outlook
↓ Dec CHI has gone from a chart that looked sideways and choppy to now looking like a new slow grind
lower may be starting, first nearby chart support in Dec CHI is 560 ½
↑ Exports have been improving lately and expected strong again tomorrow, last week's exports 504K
Cattle – Futures pre factor in a $1 higher cash trade which is likely what most are expect
↑ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +1.10 select -1.41 packer BE at 196.46, packer cushion $8.58
↑ Yesterday's trade pre factored in a $1 higher cash trade this week which is likely what most traders
are expecting to continue the recent 5 week pattern
↔BB took a break and leveled off yesterday but still maintains a packer profit level over $8
↓ Resistance seen again yesterday at levels over 188 in Dec, that has been the level to expect a general
increase in resistance from 188 up to the low 190’s
↔That 188 level has been general resistance in Dec cattle for just over a year