Old crop soybean shipments near USDA's goal, new crop problems remain.

With shipping included Brazil generally has a price advantage for both old and new crop delivery.

Sales of 88,649 tonnes were reported for US old crop soybean export sales. The trade estimate was 100,000 – 400,000.

At this time of year, with only 6 weeks and 2 days left in the old crop marketing year our focus is on shipments rather than sales. USDA’s 1.700 billion bushel soybean export estimate is -14% from the five year average sale. Year to date shipments are currently -13% from average. The remainder of the year can see shipments -28% from average and meet USDA's whole-year goal.  This week was a positive one at -2% from average. However, the prior four weeks saw shipments -32%. For now, we would suggest shipments are on target, or perhaps lightly below

New crop bookings, ahead of the September 1 start of the new marketing year, have been a concern. They remain a concern. Though last week's 829,675 tonne new crop booking was ahead of the 743,094 five year average sale for that week, it does little to change the general narrative. Year to date bookings, 2.903 million tonnes, are still the lowest in 19 years. USDA sees new crop sales -7% from the prior five year average. Current bookings are -66% from the five year average.

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