Corn – Funds cover 11K shorts, morning maps drier than Friday, active cash selling expected
↑ Funds covered 11K shorts on Friday’s COT report which may give other speculative buyers more confidence in buying pullbacks under 410
↑ This morning’s 10 day maps were slightly drier than Friday, especially days 1 – 5
↓ On even small support highly active cash selling is expected, this cash selling will be expected to offset a large portion of fund short covering if it continues
↔Some analysts are talking “record yield” and as long as that talk is circulating it will be very difficult to expect any major bounces, even with fund short covering
Beans – Funds sell 13K to new record short, days 8 – 15 of the forecast bring in light/moderate heat
↑ Last week we mentioned that starting this week trade would look at the extended forecast for first thoughts on August weather and it happens that days 8 – 15 show slightly above average temperatures
↑ Funds sold 13K to a new record short but with short covering in corn it may give trade the feeling that short covering may be next in beans, each move this year from funds has started in corn
↓ As with corn, bounces are expected to be met active and large scale cash selling
↔Both markets have news that may help bring price back to fair value levels (420 – 430 corn and 1100 for beans) but both markets also have factors to limit bounces as quickly as after 8:30 this morning
Wheat – Funds sellers of 7K, overseas trade calm, exports moderate but not strong last week
↔Funds were sellers of 7K on Friday’s COT report, they may not trade wheat the same as corn/beans
↑ Overseas trade was calm to looking slightly supported and still needs to be watched daily
↔Exports bounced back to a moderate level last week but not strong as seen recently
Cattle – Placements 93.2%, BB continues lower, long term lower numbers but demand easing now
↓ Friday’s PM BB was choice -2.32 Select -0.66 packer BE at 194.51, packer cushion $4.56
↑ Placements at 93.2% can spark some early buying this morning coming in below expectations
↓ BB continues lower and packer profits low enough to start with $1 - $2 lower cash expected this week
↓ 10 of the last 12 days of BB have been lower, choice + select has fallen from 635 to 613
↔Cattle traders should be careful to weigh the longer term impact of Placements against what is happening right now in BB, that mindset is part of the reason for the $30 setback in futures last Fall