Corn – Harvest at 30% (5 yr ave 27%), there still appeared to be light fund buying yesterday
↔Harvest is ahead of the 5 year average but most analysts expected it would be even faster than 30%
↓ Overnight corn trade a follower of beans, overnight traders may watch crude more than day session
↑ There were signs of light fund short covering yesterday, roughly estimated they are still at 10% record shorts so not completely flat, most analysts do not expect funds to start going long
↔For Friday’s report the official expectation is for no change in yield but some combine reports are beyond impressive so there may still be a chance at a small yield increase Friday
Beans – Harvest at 47% (5 yr ave 34%), SA rains now a regular event in 15 day outlook
↔Harvest well out front of average as the recent weather pattern would have suggested
↓ SA has moderate rains in the 1 – 5 day, then again in the 6 – 10, then again in the 11 – 15 day, the US 10 day weather maps are no longer suggesting even a sprinkle anywhere for harvest areas
↔Analysts are expecting a small yield increase on Friday’s report, combine reports are more 50/50 for beans, some areas reporting strong yields and some seeing yields off a bit from expectations
↓ Funds have been using normal harvest pressure to aid in exiting their short positions but now they are down to an estimated 10% of shorts we may still see normal harvest pressure slowly ease price
Wheat – HRW planting at 51% (5 yr ave 52%), still no rains in 10 day HRW forecast
↔Planting is moving at nearly an average pace, it is certainly not weather issues slowing progress
↑ There is still no rain in the HRW forecast the next 10 days, there is also talk that Russia may soon lower their wheat crop forecast as an Ag minister is expected to report on harvest soon
Cattle – BB another jump higher likely due to slow slaughter which hasn’t backed up numbers
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +3.35 select +1.72 packer BE at 189.00, packer cushion $2.89
↑ BB jumped higher again yesterday, traders reacted but remained cautious, the most likely reason for a sudden jump higher in BB is slowed slaughter which is still not a positive influence on price
↔For this week slowed slaughter did not have an impact on cattle numbers, showlist -6400
↓ A couple chart resistance levels are approaching soon, the 6 month high in Dec is 190.075, the 12 month high is 191.625, do we have strong enough fundamentals to make new 12 month highs?
↔Still using BB as a main guide but feel a bit uneasy about the sudden jump, at least short term