Mixed soybean export sale situation.

This week's sale was reported at 1,264,320 tonnes. The trade estimate was 800,000 - 1,700,000. Overnight reported sales in this period came to 352,000, 28% of the total.

The US still holds a price advantage with Brazil, albeit stepped down from the prior week. If US interest rates continue to fall this could continue.

USDA's current goal for the year is 1.850 billion bushels. That would be -5% vs. the prior five year average. Current crop sales have improved to -22% vs. the five year average. The remainder of the year needs to run +10% vs. the five year average. Though this week was the fifth best sale  for this week in history, due to the comparison against phase one years, it would not appear strong. This week was -13% vs. the five year average.

Sales are still behind USDA's goal. For now, with a US price advantage still in place, we will assume we will meet USDA's current whole-year view.

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