June feedlot placements fall to eight year lows.

Cattle on Feed would be called bullish. June placements, feeders and calves entering feedlots, were counted at 1.564 million head. That was a full -6.8% from last year. The trade estimate was -2.8% (ALDL -3.7%). This 1.564 million head inflow would be the smallest in eight years. Six of the past eight months would have lower placements. This eight month period has run -3.2% June placements determine a portion of December - March fed cattle slaughter.

June marketings, fed cattle leaving feedlots for the slaughter plant, were counted -8.7% from last year. The trade estimate was -9.3% (ALDL -7.8%). As we have been very clear, a full 8% of this was due to the June calendar, 2024 vs. 2023. The July calendar, what will be shown on the August COF report, almost exactly reverses this. It will show an unnaturally large looking marketing. Cattle on Feed therefore rises from -0.1% year/year on June 1 to now +0.5% as of July 1. The trade estimate was +1.1% (ALDL +1.1%). After the August COF report, which will show an oddly large looking marketing, the August 1 On Feed number will correctly slip back to below last year.

Every three months USDA includes a breakdown of steers and heifers in the feedlot. The trade uses this to gauge whether heifers are being held back or being sent to the feedlot. The July 1, 2024 heifer count was 39.6% of the feedlot. That is slightly under last year's 39.8%. As a reminder, when cow/calf producers were in full expansion mode after the 2013 - 2015 rally the 2015 count was 32.5%. Though cow slaughter has certainly set back this year the other side of the equation, heifer retention, is not showing expansion. Cow/calf producers are still in liquidation, albeit a milder one than 2023 or 2022.

‍