Corn – Exports expected strong at 1000K – 2300K, demand strong enough to consider higher fair value
↑ Exports are expected strong today with most likely expecting 1800K or more
↑ Both ethanol and exports continue strong enough to hint at possibly raising the fair value level but
that won’t likely be officially seen until the Jan crop report, demand needs to remain strong
↓ A small amount of additional resistance should be expected over 440 with strong resistance near 450
↔ If fear selling in beans spills over pressure to corn again it is likely we will find both speculative
buying as well as improvement in exports at March levels around 430
Beans – Analysts expect exports 1000K – 1700K, likely that traders are thinking more around 500K
↔The analyst estimate for exports would be moderate if it does come in 1000K – 1700K
↑ Some fear selling over exports eased last night just ahead of this morning’s official weekly report
↓ Recent fear selling has been aggressive enough to suggest that while analysts are looking for a
moderate report, traders are likely expecting a number closer to a very poor 500K (our estimate is 700K)
↑↓ Better support was found again yesterday at or just under 990, it should also be noted that
resistance quickly steps back in around 1010 which keeps Jan in a narrow trading range
Wheat – Exports expected moderate - strong at 275K – 600K, recent bounce doesn’t break down trend
↑ Analysts are looking for a moderate to strong export report, likely helping to add overnight support
↔So far the bounce for March CHI has not been enough to change the longer term slow grind lower
down trend that has been in place since early October
↔The US dollar has eased slightly from recent highs but is still close enough to those highs that it
needs to be watched daily for now, if it makes new highs again we could see moderate pressure again
Cattle – Almost all trades at 184 in NE yesterday, BB continues lower now taking out 9 month support
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -2.40 select -0.92 packer BE at 183.32, packer cushion -$1.85
↓ Almost all trades this week have been $1 lower in NE at 184
↓ BB continues lower and takes choice + select to 577 which is a new 9 month low level
↓ Cash is trading at 184 while futures are still pricing in a level of 187.50 as of yesterday’s close
↑ The best supporting factor this week has been seeing the feeder index consistently higher all week,
feeder futures are spilling over support to fats as cash feeder prices have recently spiked higher
↔We will see if BB making new 9 month lows changes the mind of some recent optimistic traders