Corn – The start of the 5 day warm/dry pattern is today before light rains days 6 - 10
↑ This morning starts the streak of 5 warm/dry days for northwestern growing areas, for most of the 5 days the heat stays west of the MS river but nearly all areas see some heat for at least 2 days
↔ The 6 – 10 day map shows moderate rains and temperatures moving back below average
↓ Corn has seen 3 weeks of poor exports in a row of 528K, 682K and 669K, slow exports expected today
↔ Open interest up 19K shows signs that fund selling may still be going on but it is on a smaller scale and we are finding many more buyers near 400 to offset some of the fund selling
↓ Tomorrow’s report is expected to raise carryout from 2.102 last month to 2.312
Beans – Warm/dry maps also adding some support, bean oil higher, exports expected around 350K
↑ Even though temps are not expected as high as originally forecasted, today does still start the 5 day streak of warm and dry, top end temps in the next 5 days are +10 to +13 degrees compared to average
↔ Exports will be expected moderate today around 300K – 400K
↔ We have seen a couple 8 AM sales of small amounts of beans sold to China which offers a few hours of trade support but its been a long time since China made a large 8 AM purchase
↑ Bean oil has been on a wild whipsaw trade which has influenced beans in both directions, in overnight bean oil is higher spilling over some light support
Wheat – Overnight pre buying today’s exports which are expected to be strong around 800K
↑ Wheat has seen 3 strong weeks of exports in a row and today trade will expect a 4th, near 800K
↑ Seeing 3 weeks of improved exports makes the case for true demand improvement
↓ RU harvest is just starting and continued strong yield reports will continue offering resistance
Cattle – BB stepped back again, fear trade may continue, NE traded cash $1 lower
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -1.61 Select -0.37 packer BE at 199.39, packer cushion $5.36
↓ Even though the AM BB was higher, the official report is the PM BB and that was lower yesterday
↓ Any lower moves in BB should be expected to continue the panic selling although to a smaller degree
↑ NE traded cash $1 lower at 198 but given where futures are priced that is actually supportive
↔ Last week the all areas average price was 194.03 even though there were no reports of a cash trade over 190 in KS/TX but even if we assume that somehow the 194 average