Corn – Harvest 65% complete, 5 yr ave 52%, funds quiet yesterday, more 8 AM sales expected
↔Harvest remains ahead of pace thanks to the clear weather for almost all areas, the forecast remains clear for most areas over the next 7 days which should be enough to see harvest pass 75% next week
↔After a week of aggressive selling, funds moved back to the sidelines yesterday
↑ More 8 AM sales are expected this morning and if funds are quiet again, likely to add small support
↔ Fair price remains at $4.20 which is important to keep in mind, sometimes when funds are active we tend to think fair price has changed but it represents the level for futures when funds return to flat
Beans – Harvest 81% complete, 5 yr ave 67%, 8 AM sales also expected, more attention to turn to SA
↔Harvest over 80% is the level traders consider it to be “done” unless there is a major weather issue in the forecast which the 10 day outlook does not suggest
↔Harvest being “done” means more attention turning to SA weather maps which this morning still looks quite solid for both BRA and ARG with regular moderate rains in the 10 day outlook
↑ More 8 AM sales will be expected, previously trade had expected some major sales that turned out to simply be solid, it’s likely trade will expect more 8 AM sales but ease back expectations slightly
↔Fair value remains around 1015, funds were quiet yesterday
Wheat – HRW planting 73% complete, 5 yr ave 76%, HRW moderate rains are still 10 days out
↔Planting continuing to move near average pace, while there are some who talk slower pace due to dryness it is more likely that it would cause lost acres but we won’t know that for sure for some time
↔There are moderate HRW rains in the forecast but still not seen until day 10 of the forecast
↔Funds were quiet yesterday but for wheat they were mostly quiet last week as well
Cattle – BB higher again, funds quiet yesterday taking away the current #1 buyer
↑ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +2.21 select +2.01 packer BE at 196.55, packer cushion $8.67
↑ BB continues a recovery which has choice + select back up to 619, the high for the year is 637
↔Funds have been the #1 buyer of cattle for 4 weeks running but were quiet yesterday, it is unlikely other speculators would be willing buyers this close to 6 month high levels unless cash moves above those levels first, we will likely have to wait until tomorrow for first cash bids
↔ If funds remain quiet then futures are likely to turn to following cash news rather than leading it