Harvest at 91%, early estimates call lower yield Friday

Corn – Harvest at 91%, early estimates call lower yield Friday, trade to stay cautious during elections

↔Harvest at 91% but for futures trade that won’t matter much as traders are still thinking “done”

↑ Early estimates for Friday’s November Crop Report are suggesting yields down about 0.3 bu

↔It is unlikely that large scale changes will be seen on Friday’s report, next large changes would be expected on the January crop report

↔Trade volatility slowed yesterday and is likely to be the same today as many markets are waiting for election results for the next move, not likely a direct impact on corn but might be for crude/beans

Beans – Harvest at 94%, the grain market that is most cautious on election results

↔Beans are likely to be the grain market that is most cautious when it comes to election results

↑↓ As a reminder, trade is viewing a Kamala victory as bullish and a Trump victory as bearish

↓ A larger issue is that due to a drastic change in the Real, US beans are no longer the lowest cost choice for China, this may explain why we are seeing 8 AM sales but most are short of expectations

↔Friday’s crop report is also expected to make only minor changes to beans, following that it is common to see the December report be the least important in a year and January the most important

Wheat – HRW planting 87%, HRW GTE 41%, 1st rain system ending, 2nd system starting on day 4

↔Planting pace is close to the 5 year average, GTE ratings are starting a bit low but would think that the current and upcoming rains may help that rating before dormancy

↓ The first rain system will move out after today, then the 2nd system will be on days 4 and 5

↔Rain totals look mostly the same for the entire rain event, no changes to coverage either

Cattle – BB bounces which slows a 5 day slide, more is needed, showlist -12K, futures remain cautious

↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +0.57 select +2.13 packer BE at 191.79, packer cushion $1.79

↔BB bounced yesterday but much more is needed, a 1 day bounce of +2.7 (choice + select) does not offset a 5 day setback of -16, also packer profits sub $2 is not a level traders will get excited over

↑ The -12K showlist adds a little better support but again, more of a BB bounce is needed, if packers have little $$$ to spend they may simply buy less cattle this week which would offset the showlist

↔Didn’t see any fund trade yesterday but given how often they have been in this market we would still say they could show up at any time, the are 64% of record long so they have more room to buy