Corn – Signs of funds on the sidelines may draw in light speculative buyers, resistance at 416 ½
↑ Seeing funds on the sidelines for more than 3 days now may draw in some speculative buyers, especially when corn is under fair value (420 – 430) from the July carryout number
↓ Weather maps still look solid, light/moderate rains west days 1 – 5 and moderate to heavy rains east days 6 – 10 with below average temperatures days 1 – 9
↔It is looking possible to see a range trade develop of 400 – 430 at least up to the August crop report
↔First chart resistance is at 416 ½, follow up chart resistance is at 426 ½, these leave at least some “easy” upside room left on the chart before expecting larger resistance
Beans – Again some talk of small China buying, bean oil is still a factor to watch, funds quiet
↑ There was recent talk again of potential small China buying, given the slow pace of China's purchases any type of export news from them will be seen as at least slightly supportive
↔Bean oil continues to be volatile and while calm right now could offer influence going forward
↑ As with corn, funds being on the sidelines can attract speculative buyers as Nov is underpriced given the last carry out number which would suggest a fair value closer to 1100 – 1150
↔First chart resistance is not seen until the 38% retracement at 1110 which is also near fair value
Wheat – Some concern over heat in the Black Sea region, Russia still selling wheat at the lowest price
↑ A hot and dry forecast in the Black Sea region has brought up some concern over on yields there
↓ Egypt purchased almost all Russian wheat yesterday, likely the cause of the mid-day setback, Russia is still offering wheat at a lower price than any other area and far lower than US wheat
↔Fund activity has appeared limited in wheat for weeks, unlikely recent selling was from them
Cattle – PM BB set back aggressively, packer profits now neutral, futures priced $6 under cash
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -2.23 Select -3.23 packer BE at 197.12, packer cushion $7.27
↔Yesterday’s active move lower in BB brought packer profits back to a neutral $7 level, at that level we have learned in the last 2 years to expect steady cash
↔The reason BB may not draw futures lower is due to futures already being priced $6 under cash
↓ The move lower in BB did make the chart continue a sign of a grind lower now, longer term bearish
↔BB moves are likely to affect cash more than futures as futures already have planned in weeks of a slow grind lower in cash, if the BB grind lower continues then that is likely to happen