Corn – Friday’s report friendly, the lower carryout is already factored in, will demand remain strong
↔Friday’s report lowered carryout more than expected but to a level that would suggest 430 – 435 December corn which current price levels have already factored in, the old fair value was 420
↔Today is a bank holiday which means volume is likely to be lower, trade may focus mostly on rolling
↑ Funds buy 40K, now long 22K or 5% of record, too early to tell if they plan to build a long position
↔It is likely that most of trade’s focus this week will be on whether demand can remain strong after the election results, so far it has slowed just slightly but not enough to make to call it weaker yet
Beans – Last night ARG had a slightly drier forecast but this morning it is improved slightly, demand?
↑ Last night’s forecast map was drier for ARG than it is this morning, the latest update has caused beans to ease back but rains are still not active for that area
↔As with corn, the largest question this week will be if demand is affected by election results, on Friday the USDA lowered export expectations by 25 mil bu
↔Also as with corn, carryout was lowered more than expected Friday and price already has the new fair value estimate of 1040 mostly factored into the Jan price
Wheat – Solid rains have helped HRW areas and more is in the 10 day outlook, demand solid
↓ Recent rains have helped dryness in HRW areas and more is on the way, after a break for a few daysCanother system starts up days 8 – 11 and again with wide coverage of 1” and some 4”+
↔Last week’s exports of 375K were solid, enough for a neutral influence
↔Funds were quiet in wheat and bean trade on Friday’s COT report
Cattle – BB continues lower, last week average cash likely -$3, packer profits to start the week -$0.59
↓ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -1.53 select -0.53 packer BE at 186.41, packer cushion -$3.59
↓ BB continues lower, if we factor in a $3 lower cash trade last week then that works out to packers starting the week with gross profits of -$0.59, will update that number when we see the actual report
↔As of Friday’s close, futures were positioned at a level that factored in the $3 lower cash trade but did not yet make any assumptions as to what cash would be this week, that is likely this morning
↔As we have seen for 2 years now, when packer profits are low, BB leads as the #1 influence on price