Corn – Funds bought 54K on Friday’s COT report, 8 AM sales improved in a big way Friday
↑ Funds bought 54K, short term supportive but over the last 5 weeks funds have been choppy in corn
↑ 8 AM sales improved in a big way Friday, overnight traders may be looking for that to continue today
↑ Whether it is funds, exports, ethanol or other end users, last week showed again that there are plenty of buyers in Dec corn on setbacks to around 410
↓ First resistance will be expected near fair value levels of 420, on Friday we get the November crop report but most are unlikely to expect much change meaning fair value might remain at 420
Beans – Funds sellers of 13K, election expectations may have an impact over the next 48 hours
↓ Funds were sellers of 13K and have now sold for 3 weeks in a row, now short 72K or 39% of record
↑ General talk is that election results may impact China’s buying patterns with most thinking a Kamala victory is bullish and a Trump victory is bearish, latest chatter suggests Kamala is gaining on Trump again
↔We would make the point that the #1 influence over 30+ years of watching China buying is still price, far more then election results or even their economy
↔BRA still sees strong rains, the ARG 10 day outlook now suggests lighter rains but not completely dry
↔Let’s keep a watch on election type trade but not lose focus on the core fundamentals
Wheat – Back to back rain systems are under way and have the same active rainfall totals forecasted
↔Overnight trade may have been caught up in the corn/bean support but KC wheat saw a bit more pressure and all wheat contracts may do the same after 8:30 if day session focus is on weather
↓ There is a 9 state coverage of at least 1 ½” with most areas seeing 2 ½” or more and some areas 10”
↔The 2 rain systems together will take 7 days to wrap up, a weather event impacting the whole week
Cattle – Most of last week’s cash trades were steady to 0.50 lower, BB suggests this week to be lower
↓ Friday’s PM BB was choice -1.26 select -0.34 packer BE at 191.44, packer cushion $0.73
↓ Packers will start the week with gross profits under $1, the 3rd lowest start of the year and not a positive outlook for cash bids to start the week
↓ Dec took out first major chart support Friday, upcoming lighter chart support levels would be the 100 day moving average at 183.70 and old highs of 182.075 then 179.50
↔Trade may keep decent support in cattle even with the low BB because there was 1 other time this year where packer profits were this low and they still paid slightly higher cash that week
↑ Funds were buyers of 8K, now long 99K or 64% of record