Corn – Exports expected very large at 2700K – 4150K, Dec moves just above fair value
↑ Exports are expected very large this morning, the high end 4150K would be the 5th highest weekly corn sale in history if this morning’s number comes in that strong
↑ Ethanol improved further yesterday at 1081K, slightly ahead of USDA estimates on the year so far
↔Corn yields have been reported very strong but the last 4 weeks of corn exports have been even stronger which has helped to move Dec slightly above 420 fair value
↔Unlike many times where trade reacts to uncertain news (Will it rain? Will it not rain?), we have recently seen a true demand increase which is a solid core fundamental factor
Beans – Exports expected strong at 1200K – 2500K, Nov is almost back up to fair value level
↑ While not as strong as corn, beans are expected a very solid export day today as well
↔Corn has seen slightly better demand than beans which is why corn has returned to fair value while beans are still about 10 cents under (fair value 1015), good news for beans just not as strong as corn
↑ SA maps are slightly drier, still solid rains for BRA but ARG now with limited rains the next 10 days
↔We might expect a bit more choppy trade in beans following today with uncertainty over the election and what that may mean to China buying
Wheat – Yet another increase for rain in some HRW areas, a major system just limited HRW coverage
↔Exports are expected moderate to strong at 350K – 700K
↔There is a sizable rain event late in the 10 day outlook but as of now it looks to catch some eastern HRW areas but a bulk of the rain is centered over IA/MO/IL
↔Wheat news has been calmer but if corn/beans make large enough moves, wheat will follow
Cattle – No packer bids from the majors yet, futures still pricing in $1 higher, BB lower yesterday
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -2.65 select +0.97 packer BE at 195.95, packer cushion $8.07
↔No cash bids seen from packers yet but futures have pre priced in this week will be $1 higher
↔Yesterday’s choppy trade may have come from the McDonalds E. coli story yesterday, traders may be unsure if or how much this will effect upcoming meat demand
↔While trade has been choppy, for now futures are assuming this will be a normal week with a slightly higher cash trade as we have seen the last 5 weeks in a row
↔BB has slowed its rally but still far from looking like a new setback