Corn – Trade expecting strong exports of 1200K – 2250K, last week was 1222K, fund selling?
↑ Trade is expecting strong exports this morning, this will not include the 2 MMT Mexico purchase
↔Dec did take out $4 yesterday posting a low of 399 but then again immediately found active buying at that level just as we would expect around $4
↑ At that $4 level we would expect more exports, ethanol to also increase, cattle feeders buying as a feed hedge and even speculators to step in, it’s finally a level that interests many buyers
↔Once again some analysts are briefly mentioning that fund selling is possible and although we seem to have every sign that is the case, we won’t know for sure until seeing the next COT report
Beans – Trade expecting strong exports of 1000K – 2250K, last week 1264K, based mostly on price
↑ Trade expecting to see strong weekly sales today based mostly on price as we have seen a few 8 AM sales but by itself not enough to assume very strong sales today
↑ Just like corn is finding buying near $4, beans are finding buying under $10 but the level is not as exact or easy to pinpoint as corn is, we have seen regular 8 AM sales and an increase to crush this week
↔Also left to question whether funds have returned as sellers, if so it looks smaller in beans
↔It is commonly mentioned that a “Trump trade” exists for beans on ideas if Trump gets elected it would be negative for exports, initially this sounds backwards but is something that is talked about
Wheat – Trade expecting strong exports of 250 – 550, last week 439K, HRW rains unchanged
↑ Trade expecting strong exports today based on lower price and recent 2 week streak of stronger sales
↔HRW rains in the 10 day forecast are about the same as we have seen recently
↔Wheat looks to be slowing the upward trend and chopping more sideways in the last 2 weeks
Cattle – Most of yesterday’s cash trade was 188 ($1 higher) for NE, trade remains on the cautious side
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +0.13 select +1.15 packer BE at 194.56, packer cushion $7.60
↑ NE traded cattle mostly at 188 yesterday which is $1 higher and closer to the trade we would expect
↔Futures traders have turned more cautious this week despite news of $1 higher cash trades and a continued slow grind higher in boxed beef, this may be due to recent fund buying slowing this week
↔If funds have slowed their support then it makes sense that few other speculators would step in to move corn above 6 month highs at 190.075, at least not unless cash news continues to improve
↔Yesterday’s reported cash trade and futures are almost exactly in line right now