Corn – Exports beat expectations and continues providing light support, March close to fair value
↑ Exports yesterday beat expectations and were the 2nd best ever for that particular week
↑ Analysts estimates look for a 32 mil bu decline in ending stocks on Tuesday to 1.906
↔March is approaching 440 fair value, if carryout is lowered 31 mil bu the new fair value would be 445
↔Sellers may ease back today/Monday as selling ahead of an expected bullish report is tough to do
↑ Year to date exports are +29% to the 5 year average, USDA has factored in +6%
Beans – Exports yesterday a new record for that week, parts of ARG slightly drier this morning
↑ Exports yesterday were a record for that week and at the high end of expectations
↔Year to date exports are -2% of the 5 year average, USDA’s estimate is -7%
↑ There are parts of ARG that are drier on the morning maps, impacting possibly half their growing area
↔Analysts expect a 1 mil bu decline in carryout Tuesday to 0.469
↔We may see some light pre buying of Tuesday’s report but most traders are still avoiding anything
aggressively long for fear of what may happen to exports after Jan 20th
Wheat – Exports were moderate as exp, Tuesday’s report exp neutral, downtrend line broken
↔Exports were moderate as expected yesterday, Tuesday’s crop report is looking for a 1 mil bu
decline to 0.814
↔Overnight trade made it above the downtrend line in March CHI then eased back below it, before
getting too excited it would be a more positive sign to see the day session above that line
↔That March CHI downtrend line crosses today at 558 ½
Cattle – Cash trades mostly 188.50 – 190, BB grinding lower again, very cautious trade yesterday
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -0.49 select -0.60 packer BE at 185.72, packer cushion -$4.13
↔Most cash trades were -$0.50 at 190 to slightly lower at 188.50, all trades seen so far are in NE
↓ BB is back to looking like a slow grind lower, CH + SEL at 585 is still off the 9 month low of 577
↔Packers paying slightly lower cash yesterday means they are just off from record losses this week
↔The NE slaughter plant shutdown was estimated to have slowed yesterday’s slaughter by 5K – 6K
↓ While the timing is different the surge higher in the feeder index looks very much like what we saw
last fall, keep in mind it was the feeder index turning lower which sparked the setback and that is likely
causing some of the cautious trade seen yesterday