Corn – Exports were disappointing yesterday, easing back and finding where new support will be
↓ Exports were disappointing yesterday at 947K, on a fundamental basis one poor week is not a major
event but we know traders have been cautious of an export slow down so some easing is expected
↔We know that support was found previously at 430, it is likely that new support will be found above
that level after seeing 200 mil bu lower carryout, we will soon see where that new level is
↓ We may be seeing some end of year producer selling on bounces which could limit corn reaching the
new 470 fair value level even on positive news
↔We are likely to see a new range develop that will last until the Jan crop report
Beans – Weekly exports disappointing but some 8 AM sales were seen yesterday, trade cautious again
↓ The #1 fear that traders have been showing is exports potentially slowing, while yesterday’s report
was only a 1 week slowdown it still is sparking the cautious selling again
↔Yesterday saw a 334K 8 AM sale which helped to limit fear selling but more 8 AM sales are needed
↔Given that carryout for beans did not change on Tuesday we can expect the old trading range to
continue mostly between the 980’s and 1000, this could last until the January crop report
↔If weekly exports slow for 2 or 3 weeks we might then see a little more pressure on price
Wheat – Exports were called poor by some but at 290K, they should be considered moderate
↔Exports yesterday at 290K was called “poor” by some but if comparing that number to what is
normal this time of year and comparing it to USDA expectations it is a moderate pace
↓ It would be tough to expect wheat to hold strong support when both corn/beans trade lower
↔If corn can maintain better support long term, March CHI may not need to test 540 ¼ contract low
Cattle – Most cash trades 193.50 with some talk of 195 mixed in again, strong BB bounce
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +4.01 select +2.37 packer BE at 189.14, packer cushion -$1.71
↑ BB posted a solid bounce yesterday, this pattern of sudden spikes higher then a slow grind lower
implies most of the short spikes higher in BB are from packers cutting kills briefly
↑ The feeder index was +1.61 yesterday at a new record high of 263.07
↔Some of yesterday’s cautious trade may have been tied to concerns of seeing the feeder index lower
on Tuesday/Wednesday but yesterday spiked back up to new record highs
↔No headline updates on screw worm or Mexico borders but still something to keep an eye out for