Corn – This week ethanol was very strong, exports moderate, March still near 440 fair value
↑↔Ethanol was strong this week at 1110K and exports were moderate at 1495K
↔A few other markets are seeing volatility and moving to significant highs or lows but March corn remains very close to the 440 fair value level, only occasionally influenced by other markets
↔Generally calm trade may be expected today due to this being the day December options expire
↔In futures March has already taken over as lead contract and is the month to watch charts on as well as the month all new trades should be placed that are not direct hedges
Beans – Exports very strong, bean oil may be spilling over resistance to beans, SA maps a non issue
↑ Exports were above all of trade’s expectations yesterday at 1861K, 1200K of that going to China
↓ After running to 2 year highs, palm oil is now easing back from those highs which in turn is causing bean oil to ease back and that may be one of the reasons for the recent weakness in bean trade
↓ Another possible weight on the beans is seeing both BRA and ARG with regular solid rains in the 10 day forecast, in fact there have been no major SA weather concerns since early October
↔The Jan chart only has one level of support left, contract lows of 973 ½
Wheat – March CHI moved close to the top of the downtrend then found resistance, exports strong
↓ Yesterday March CHI lead contract of wheat moved right up to a 1 ½ month downtrend line and that line held which means as much as wheat has bounced lately, it still is in a down trend
↑ Exports were strong yesterday at 550K, more is likely needed to break the downtrend
↓ HRW is going to go into dormancy with a GTE rating near 5 year highs
Cattle – A higher BB report and a cash trade of 186 in KS/TX, feeder index rally slowed yesterday
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +0.40 select +1.93 packer BE at 184.06, packer cushion -$1.11
↔BB was higher yesterday and remains one of the key factors to watch, packer profits still negative for now so reaction may be limited until the bounce can be trusted
↔Cash feeder prices have jumped higher in the last week by more than $5, yesterday saw a cooling off on the feeder index being +0.01 after days of seeing that index move actively higher
↔Today is the COF report with Placements expected 103.8, Marketings 105.2 and On Feed 99.9
↔It seems likely that fund buying has been involved lately as we have seen funds buying cattle 7 of the last 8 weeks, we will check today’s COT report to see if this recent surge higher makes week 8